HomeMy WebLinkAbout10-27-2025 - Bob Schulte Socioeconomics_Technical_Report_FINAL (August 2025)Cape Cod Bridges Program
Bourne, Massachusetts
Appendix 4.5
Socioeconomics Technical Report
SUBMITTED TO:
Secretary of Energy and Environmental Affairs
Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EEA)
Massachusetts Environmental Policy Act (MEPA) Office
100 Cambridge Street, Suite 900
Boston, MA 02114
PROPONENT:
The Massachusetts Department of
Transportation
Highway Division
10 Park Plaza
Boston, MA 02116
Submitted August 2025
i Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Table of Contents
1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1
2 Methods for Effect Evaluation ....................................................................................................... 1
2.1 Regulatory Context ................................................................................................................... 1
2.2 Methodology and Study Area ................................................................................................... 1
3 Existing Conditions ........................................................................................................................ 2
3.1 Population ................................................................................................................................. 2
3.2 Population Projections .............................................................................................................. 4
3.2.1 Median Age ................................................................................................................. 4
Race/Ethnicity .......................................................................................................................... 6
3.2.2 Foreign-Born Residents and Language Ability ............................................................. 7
3.3 Households ............................................................................................................................... 8
3.3.1 Household Projections ................................................................................................ 9
3.3.2 Median Household Income ....................................................................................... 10
3.3.3 Per-Capita Income ..................................................................................................... 11
3.3.4 Families Below Poverty Level .................................................................................... 12
3.4 Housing ................................................................................................................................... 13
3.4.1 Owner- Versus Renter-Occupied Housing Units ........................................................ 14
3.4.2 Median Home Value .................................................................................................. 15
3.4.3 Age of Housing Stock ................................................................................................. 16
3.4.4 Housing Cost-Burdened Households ......................................................................... 16
3.5 Employment and Workforce Characteristics ........................................................................... 18
3.5.1 Educational Attainment............................................................................................. 18
3.5.2 Employment Status ................................................................................................... 19
3.5.3 Class of Worker ......................................................................................................... 20
3.5.4 Method of Commute ................................................................................................. 21
3.5.5 Mean Travel Time to Work ........................................................................................ 22
3.5.6 Number of Vehicles ................................................................................................... 23
3.5.7 Total Employment and Business Characteristics ....................................................... 24
3.5.8 Average Annual Wage ............................................................................................... 24
3.5.9 Establishments .......................................................................................................... 25
3.5.10 Largest Industries by 2-Digit NAICS ........................................................................... 26
3.5.11 Most Jobs Added, 2010-2022, Major Sectors (2-Digit NAICS).................................... 28
3.5.12 Percentage of Total Employment for 3-Digit NAICS Sectors ...................................... 29
3.5.13 Most Jobs Added, 2010-2022 by 3-Digit NAICS ......................................................... 30
3.5.14 Employment Trends in Retail Trade .......................................................................... 31
3.5.15 Employment Trends in Accommodation/Food Services ............................................ 32
3.5.16 Employment Trends in Healthcare ............................................................................ 33
ii Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.17 Room and Meals Tax Revenues ................................................................................. 33
3.5.18 Meal Tax Revenues.................................................................................................... 35
3.6 Commercial Real Estate .......................................................................................................... 36
3.6.1 Office Space ............................................................................................................... 36
3.6.2 Retail Space ............................................................................................................... 38
3.6.3 Industrial Space ......................................................................................................... 40
4 Impacts of the No Build Alternative ............................................................................................. 42
4.1 Cape Cod Bridges Replacement: An Urgent Need (the Report) .............................................. 42
4.2 Methodology (the Report) ...................................................................................................... 43
4.3 Elements of the Report ........................................................................................................... 44
4.3.1 The Cape Cod Bridges Are of Significant Importance to Businesses and
Communities ............................................................................................................. 44
4.3.2 The Current State of the Bridges Is Hurting Cape Cod Businesses and
Communities ............................................................................................................. 45
4.3.3 The Current State of the Bridges Is Negatively Impacting Residents ......................... 45
4.3.4 The Current State of the Bridges Impacts Emergency Services and Access to
Healthcare and Is a Public Health and Public Safety Risk .......................................... 46
4.3.5 Failure to Replace the Bridges Would Be Catastrophic ............................................. 47
4.3.6 Replacing the Bridges Would Have Significant Benefits for Residents and the
Economy .................................................................................................................... 48
5 Program Impacts ......................................................................................................................... 49
5.1 Operational Impacts ................................................................................................................ 49
5.1.1 Regional Economic Impacts ....................................................................................... 49
5.1.2 TREDIS Software Background .................................................................................... 51
5.1.3 Development of TREDIS Inputs .................................................................................. 52
5.1.4 Key Valuation Parameters ......................................................................................... 53
5.1.5 Mode Share ............................................................................................................... 53
5.1.6 Visitors Versus Locals ................................................................................................ 53
5.1.7 Vehicle Occupancy .................................................................................................... 54
5.1.8 Vehicle Operating Costs ............................................................................................ 54
5.1.9 Value of Time ............................................................................................................ 56
5.1.10 Value of Freight Logistics Delay ................................................................................. 56
5.1.11 Detailed Results ......................................................................................................... 57
5.1.12 Local Area Economic Impacts .................................................................................... 60
5.1.13 Right-of-Way Analysis ............................................................................................... 64
5.2 Construction Impacts .............................................................................................................. 66
iii Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Figures
Figure 3-1. Socioeconomic Study Area ................................................................................................................... 3
Figure 3-2. Percentage of Total Employment for Top Employment Industries by 2-Digit NAICS, 2022 .............. 27
Figure 3-3. Most Jobs Added, 2010-2022, 2-Digit NAICS ..................................................................................... 28
Figure 3-4. Percentage of Total Employment for Top Employment Industries by 3-Digit NAICS, 2022 .............. 29
Figure 3-5. Most Jobs Added, 2010-2022, 3-Digit NAICS ..................................................................................... 30
Figure 3-6. Employment Trends in Retail Trade ................................................................................................... 31
Figure 3-7. Employment Trends in Accommodation/Food Services .................................................................... 32
Figure 3-8. Employment Trends in Healthcare .................................................................................................... 33
Figure 3-9. Room Tax Revenues by Fiscal Year, FY 2013 to FY 2024 .................................................................... 34
Figure 3-10. Meals Tax Revenues by Fiscal Year, FY 2013 to FY 2024 ................................................................... 35
Figure 3-11 Historical Inventory and Occupancy in Square Feet Office Space, 2006-2024 (Barnstable
County) ............................................................................................................................................... 36
Figure 3-12. Office Space Inventory and Occupancy Percentage, 2006-2024 (Towns of Bourne and
Sandwich and Barnstable County) ..................................................................................................... 37
Figure 3-13. Office Rents, 2006-2024 (Towns of Bourne and Sandwich Compared to Barnstable County
Overall) ............................................................................................................................................... 37
Figure 3-14. Historical Inventory and Occupancy in Square Feet Retail Space, 2006-2014 (Barnstable
County) ............................................................................................................................................... 38
Figure 3-15 Percentage of Retail Inventory and Occupancy in Square Feet, 2006-2014 (Town of Bourne
and Sandwich) .................................................................................................................................... 39
Figure 3-16. Retail Space Rents (Towns of Bourne and Sandwich Compared to Barnstable County) .................. 39
Figure 3-17. Inventory and Occupancy in Square Feet Industrial Space, 2006-2024 (Barnstable County) ........... 40
Figure 3-18. Percentage of Industrial Space Inventory and Occupancy (Towns of Bourne and Sandwich
Compared to Barnstable County) ...................................................................................................... 41
Figure 3-19. Triple Net (NNN) Rent for Industrial Space (Barnstable County) ....................................................... 41
Tables
Table 3-1. Population, 2010 and 2022 .................................................................................................................. 2
Table 3-2. Population Projections, 2019-2050...................................................................................................... 4
Table 3-3. Median Age, 2010 and 2022 ................................................................................................................ 5
Table 3-4. Change in Age Group, Under 18 and 65 and Older, 2010-2022 .......................................................... 5
Table 3-5. Race and Ethnicity, 2022 ...................................................................................................................... 6
Table 3-6. Residents Identifying as Hispanic (of Any Race), 2010 and 2022 ........................................................ 7
Table 3-7. Foreign-Born Residents and Language Spoken at Home, 2010-2022.................................................. 7
Table 3-8. Number of Households and Household Size, 2010 and 2022 .............................................................. 8
Table 3-9. Number of Households, Projections 2019-2050 .................................................................................. 9
Table 3-10. Median Household Income ................................................................................................................ 10
Table 3-11. Per-Capita Income .............................................................................................................................. 11
Table 3-12. Families Below Poverty Level and Families with Children Below Poverty Level ............................... 12
Table 3-13. Occupied Housing Units ..................................................................................................................... 13
Table 3-14. Owner- Versus Renter-Occupied Housing Units ................................................................................ 14
iv Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Table 3-15. Median Home Value .......................................................................................................................... 15
Table 3-16. Year Structure Built ............................................................................................................................ 16
Table 3-17. Housing Cost-Burdened Households, 2022 ....................................................................................... 17
Table 3-18. Educational Attainment, Residents Aged 25 and Older with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher .............. 18
Table 3-19. Employment Status ............................................................................................................................ 19
Table 3-20. Class of Worker .................................................................................................................................. 20
Table 3-21. Method of Commute, 2022 ............................................................................................................... 21
Table 3-22. Mean Travel Time to Work, 2010 and 2022 ...................................................................................... 22
Table 3-23. Number of Vehicles per Household ................................................................................................... 23
Table 3-24. Employment, 2010 and 2022 ............................................................................................................. 24
Table 3-25. Annual Average Nominal Wages, 2010 and 2022 .............................................................................. 24
Table 3-26. Number of Establishments, 2001, 2014, and 2023 ............................................................................ 25
Table 3-27. Room Tax Revenues, FY 2013 and FY 2024 ........................................................................................ 34
Table 3-28. Meal Tax Revenues, FY 2013 and FY 2024 ......................................................................................... 35
Table 5-1. Economic Impacts: TREDIS Analysis, 2050 ......................................................................................... 50
Table 5-2. State and Local Tax Impacts, 2050 (2022 dollars) .............................................................................. 50
Table 5-3. Social Benefits in 2050 (2022 dollars) ................................................................................................ 51
Table 5-4. Vehicle Operations and Maintenance Costs (2022$) ........................................................................ 55
Table 5-5. Vehicle Fuel Consumption ................................................................................................................. 55
Table 5-6. Fuel Prices .......................................................................................................................................... 55
Table 5-7. Value of Travel-Time Savings and Travel-Time Reliability Savings by Mode and Purpose ................ 56
Table 5-8. Impacts by Major Industry Sector in 2050 (Total Massachusetts) .................................................... 57
Table 5-9. Impacts by Major Industry Sector in 2050 (Rest of Massachusetts) ................................................. 58
Table 5-10. Impacts by Major Industry Sector in 2050 (Total Massachusetts) .................................................... 59
Table 5-11. Increase in Access to Jobs with 3-minute Travel-Time Savings (Sagamore Bridge) .......................... 60
Table 5-12. Increase in Access to Jobs with 3-minute Travel-Time Savings (Bourne Bridge) ............................... 61
Table 5-13. Increase in Access to Jobs with 3-minute Travel-Time Savings (Sagamore Bridge) .......................... 62
Table 5-14. Increase in Access to Consumer Expenditures with 3-minute Travel-Time Savings (Bourne
Bridge) ................................................................................................................................................ 64
Table 5-15. Assessed Values Before and After Potential Acquisition ................................................................... 65
Table 5-16. Potential Property Tax Loss Due to Property Acquisition .................................................................. 65
Table 5-17. Economic and Fiscal Impacts in Massachusetts of Cape Cod Bridges Replacement (both
bridges) Conceptual Program Expenditure Estimates: Total Impacts (Direct +
Indirect/Induced) ............................................................................................................................... 66
Table 5-18. Economic and Fiscal Impacts in Massachusetts of Cape Cod Bridges Replacement (both
bridges) Conceptual Program Expenditure Estimates: Distribution of Impacts and
Multipliers .......................................................................................................................................... 67
Table 5-19. Economic and Fiscal Impacts in Massachusetts of Cape Cod Bridges Replacement (both
bridges) Conceptual Program Expenditure Estimates: Composition of Gross Domestic
Product ............................................................................................................................................... 68
Table 5-20. Economic and Fiscal Impacts in Massachusetts of Cape Cod Bridges Replacement (both
bridges) Conceptual Program Expenditure Estimates: Tax Accounts ................................................ 68
Table 5-21. Economic and Fiscal Impacts in Massachusetts of Cape Cod Bridges Replacement (both
bridges) Conceptual Program Expenditure Estimates: Impacts per Million Dollars of Initial
Expenditure (in dollars) ...................................................................................................................... 69
v Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Acronyms and Abbreviations
Acronym/Abbreviation Definition
MassDOT Massachusetts Department of Transportation
NAICS North American Industry Classification System
Program Cape Cod Bridges Program
VHT vehicle hours traveled
VMT vehicle miles traveled
1 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
1 Introduction
This technical report provides a socioeconomic profile of the Cape Cod Bridges Program Limits,
including the census tracts within the immediate Project Limits; the towns of Bourne, Sandwich, and
Plymouth; as well as Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties. Potential impacts of the No Build
Alternative are discussed in qualitative terms. Regional and local economic impacts of the Build
Alternative are assessed quantitatively for the Project Limits and Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket
Counties.
2 Methods for Effect Evaluation
2.1 Regulatory Context
The Massachusetts Department of Transportation (MassDOT) prepared this socioeconomic assessment
in accordance with Federal Highway Administration Technical Advisory T6640.8A, Guidance for
Preparing and Processing Environmental and Section 4(F) Documents.
2.2 Methodology and Study Area
The Massachusetts Department of Transportation (MassDOT) used the data in this analysis from the
following sources:
• U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) historical and most recent 5-year
estimates (2018-2022). The ACS offers detailed demographic, economic, and housing data, allowing
for a comprehensive look at population trends, income, housing, and employment within the
Program Study Area.
• Employment and wage data were compiled from the Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and
Workforce Development (2001-2023).
• Traffic analyses done by MassDOT were used in the assessment of local and regional economic
impacts.
• Additional data regarding market conditions, including tax revenues and projections, are sourced to
the Massachusetts Department of Revenue, Massachusetts Office of Travel and Tourism, and the
Cape Cod Commission.
• Population, household, and employment projections are based on estimates from the UMass
Donahue Institute.
• Data on real estate market conditions and trends are from the CoStar Property Information System.
• The assessment of impacts of the Build Alternative compared to No Build Alternative employment
within Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties in 2050 was accomplished using the TREDIS
economic impact assessment model.
2 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
• The assessment of travel-time savings impacts on potential labor force and consumer sales access
from the Local Project Area uses data from Claritas Site Reports, and a retail opportunity
gap/surplus analysis.
The analysis examines data for 10 geographic areas (Figure 3-1):
• Census Tracts: 137, 138, and 139 are in the town of Bourne (Local Project Area for the purposes of
the socioeconomic analysis)
• Towns: Bourne, Plymouth, and Sandwich
• Counties: Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket
• State: Massachusetts
3 Existing Conditions
3.1 Population
Table 3-1 presents population changes across each geographic area between 2010 and 2022. Most
areas experienced population growth during this period. Dukes County at 27% and Nantucket County
at nearly 40% experienced the greatest increases—three and five times more, respectively—than the
statewide growth rate of 8%. Population in the town of Sandwich declined while the other areas
increased.
Table 3 -1 . Population, 2010 and 2022
Geographic Area 2010 2022
Change
(2010-2022)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 4,865 4,285 -11.9%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 4,968 5,504 10.8%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 4,497 5,046 12.2%
Town of Bourne 19,577 20,455 4.5%
Town of Plymouth 55,606 61,628 10.8%
Town of Sandwich 20,628 20,419 -1.0%
Barnstable County 217,483 229,436 5.5%
Dukes County 16,155 20,543 27.2%
Nantucket County 10,069 14,065 39.7%
Massachusetts 6,477,096 6,984,205 7.8%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP05
3 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Figure 3 -1 . Socioeconomic Study Area
Source: Massachusetts Department of Transportation, 2024
4 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.2 Population Projections
The town of Plymouth and Dukes County are expected to experience overall population growth, with
increases of 14.3% and 14.2%, respectively (Table 3-2), over the full period. Nantucket County indicates
moderate growth initially, but by 2050 it is projected to decline by 12.8% from 2040 levels, with the
largest population decrease occurring between 2030 and 2050. In contrast, Barnstable County exhibits
the steepest overall decline, with a projected 17.4% population decrease by 2050, and a continuous
downward trend from 2030 onward.
Table 3 -2 . Population Projections, 2019-2050
Geographic Area 2019 2030 2040 2050
Change
(2019-
2050)
Change
(2030-
2050)
Change
(2040-
2050)
Town of Bourne 19,762 18,032 21,352 18,916 -4.3% 4.9% -11.4%
Town of Plymouth 61,528 71,487 64,342 70,312 14.3% -1.6% 9.3%
Town of Sandwich 20,169 19,387 21,412 19,893 -1.4% 2.6% -7.1%
Barnstable County 212,990 216,048 190,000 176,007 -17.4% -18.5% -7.4%
Dukes County 17,332 20,923 19,975 19,793 14.2% -5.4% -0.9%
Nantucket County 11,399 15,873 14,000 12,212 7.1% -23.1% -12.8%
Source: Estimates are from UMass Donahue Institute V2024 Population Projections, May 2024.
Data for census tracts are not available.
3.2.1 Median Age
Table 3-3 highlights a demographic shift in many of the reference areas. Each of the census tracts,
communities, and counties experienced aging in their populations exceeding the statewide average.
While Massachusetts experienced only a slight increase in median age from 2010 to 2020, areas like
Barnstable County and towns such as Bourne, Sandwich, and Plymouth are experiencing a greater
relative aging of the population. Dukes County has also seen a rise in the age of its residents, although
not as pronounced as in some of the other areas. Nantucket County, on the other hand, indicates a
relatively stable population in terms of age, with only a small increase in median age over the period,
about the same as the statewide average.
The population of residents under 18 has declined across most areas, with the largest relative loss of
people under 18 in Census Tract 138 and the town of Sandwich. In contrast, the population of
residents 65 and older has grown in all areas. The general trend suggests an aging of the population
exceeding the statewide average increase. Nantucket County is an exception, showing a slight increase
in the under-18 population, while Massachusetts saw overall declines in the younger population and
modest growth in the older age group (Table 3-4).
5 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Table 3 -3 . Median Age, 2010 and 2022
Geographic Area
Median Age
(2010)
Median Age
(2022)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 36.2 53.8
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 39.7 49.3
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 48.5 54.7
Town of Bourne 42.0 52.7
Town of Plymouth 41.2 47.7
Town of Sandwich 42.5 51.9
Barnstable County 48.7 54.5
Dukes County 44.3 49.2
Nantucket County 39.1 40.5
Massachusetts 38.7 39.8
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP05
Table 3 -4 . Change in Age Group, Under 18 and 65 and Older, 2010-2022
Geographic Area
Under 18 Years of Age,
Percentage Change
(2010-2020)
65 years of Age and
Older, Percentage
Change (2010-2020)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) -3.6% 11.3%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) -8.3% 8.4%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 0.1% 18.0%
Town of Bourne -3.6% 10.6%
Town of Plymouth -5.1% 10.9%
Town of Sandwich -9.4% 14.3%
Barnstable County -3.4% 7.5%
Dukes County -1.6% 9.6%
Nantucket County 1.0% 4.6%
Massachusetts -2.5% 3.6%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP05
6 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Race/Ethnicity
Most regions have a predominantly White population, particularly in areas like the towns of Sandwich
and Plymouth, where over 90% of residents identify as White. However, Dukes and Nantucket Counties
show more racial diversity, with a larger percentage of residents identifying as Black/African American,
Hispanic, or Two or More Races. Massachusetts overall is also more racially and ethnically diverse, with
a higher proportion of Black/African American, Asian, and Hispanic residents compared to the smaller
local project area census tracts, towns, and counties (Table 3-5).
Table 3 -5 . Race and Ethnicity, 2022
Geographic Area
White,
one Race
Black or
African
American
American
Indian,
Alaska
Native Asian
Native
Hawaiian/
Other
Pacific
Islander
Some
Other
Race
Two or
More
Races
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 92.4% 0.3% 1.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.3% 4.5%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 94.1% 0.9% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 90.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Town of Bourne 90.7% 1.0% 0.3% 2.1% 0.0% 2.2% 3.7%
Town of Plymouth 90.4% 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 1.9% 5.1%
Town of Sandwich 93.7% 1.2% 0.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.6% 2.9%
Barnstable County 87.9% 2.8% 0.4% 1.5% 0.0% 2.2% 5.2%
Dukes County 82.5% 3.1% 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% 3.0% 9.0%
Nantucket County 75.0% 11.1% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 4.9% 7.1%
Massachusetts 72.7% 7.1% 0.2% 7.0% 0.0% 5.0% 8.0%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP05
Hispanic individuals can belong to any of the racial categories mentioned in Table 3-5. In 2022, the
proportion of Hispanic residents varied across the geographic areas. Massachusetts had a Hispanic
population of 12.6%, with Nantucket County higher at 15.1%. In comparison, Barnstable County (3.5%),
Dukes County (3.6%), and Plymouth (3.1%) reported smaller Hispanic populations, though these figures
still represent growing Hispanic communities in those regions. Between 2010 and 2022, Nantucket
County experienced the most growth in its Hispanic population, with a 9.3 percentage point increase
(Table 3-6).
7 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Table 3 -6 . Residents Identifying as Hispanic (of Any Race), 2010 and 2022
Geographic Area
Hispanic (of Any Race)
2010
Hispanic (of Any Race)
2022
Change
(2010-2022)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 2.1% 1.9% -0.2%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 0.5% 3.6% 3.1%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Town of Bourne 2.0% 2.4% 0.4%
Town of Plymouth 1.7% 3.1% 1.4%
Town of Sandwich 2.3% 2.1% -0.2%
Barnstable County 2.1% 3.5% 1.4%
Dukes County 0.6% 3.6% 3.0%
Nantucket County 5.8% 15.1% 9.3%
Massachusetts 9.0% 12.6% 3.6%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP05
3.2.2 Foreign-Born Residents and Language Ability
The percentage of foreign-born residents in Massachusetts is higher than in the study regions, at
17.6%. In comparison, Dukes County (14.7%) and Nantucket County (13.1%) also have notable foreign-
born populations but fall below the state average. Between 2010 and 2022, most regions saw an
increase in foreign-born populations, with Dukes County experiencing the highest increase (Table 3-7).
Table 3 -7 . Foreign-Born Residents and Language Spoken at Home, 2010-2022
Geographic Area
Foreign Born
(2022)
Foreign Born
Change
(2010-2022)
Speak Language
Other than
English at Home
(2022)
Speak Language
Other than
English Change
(2010-2022)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 5.4% 1.0% 7.6% 0.6%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 7.5% 4.9% 6.5% 4.4%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 1.1% -1.6% 0.5% -1.8%
Town of Bourne 4.6% 1.0% 5.7% 1.4%
Town of Plymouth 6.1% 1.3% 7.0% 0.2%
Town of Sandwich 4.1% 0.2% 4.8% -0.6%
Barnstable County 9.4% 2.7% 10.6% 3.1%
8 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Geographic Area
Foreign Born
(2022)
Foreign Born
Change
(2010-2022)
Speak Language
Other than
English at Home
(2022)
Speak Language
Other than
English Change
(2010-2022)
Dukes County 14.7% 7.2% 16.9% 9.8%
Nantucket County 13.1% -1.7% 15.6% 0.5%
Massachusetts 17.6% 3.1% 24.5% 3.5%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP02
In terms of linguistic diversity, Massachusetts reports the highest percentage of residents who speak a
language other than English at home (24.5%), followed by Dukes County (16.9%) and Nantucket County
(15.6%). Other regions, such as the town of Plymouth and Barnstable County, show lower numbers but
are still above areas like the towns of Sandwich and Bourne (Table 3-7).
3.3 Households
Household growth trends clearly diverge across geographic areas between 2010 and 2022. The census
tracts and towns have experienced growth in the number of households, with some areas seeing
increases of over 20%. In contrast, the counties and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts have shown
more moderate growth, with only marginal changes in household numbers in certain areas (Table 3-8).
Additionally, average household sizes vary notably. Smaller household sizes in areas like Barnstable
County and the Islands—Dukes County and Nantucket County—likely reflect demographic factors such
as an aging population and single-person households while larger household sizes in towns like
Plymouth and Sandwich indicate more family-oriented communities with younger residents.
Table 3 -8 . Number of Households and Household Size, 2010 and 2022
Geographic Area
Total Households
(2010)
Total Households
(2022)
Change
(2010-2022)
Average Household
Size
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 1,587 1,916 20.7% 2.11
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 1,879 2,217 18.0% 2.64
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 1,943 2,314 19.1% 2.31
Town of Bourne 7,730 8,715 12.7% 2.34
Town of Plymouth 21,177 25,217 19.1% 2.52
Town of Sandwich 7,635 7,977 4.5% 2.66
Barnstable County 98,164 99,969 1.8% 2.17
Dukes County 5,530 6,899 26.2% 2.92
9 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Geographic Area
Total Households
(2010)
Total Households
(2022)
Change
(2010-2022)
Average Household
Size
Nantucket County 3,623 4,659 28.6% 2.17
Massachusetts 2,512,552 2,740,995 9.1% 2.48
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP02
3.3.1 Household Projections
The household projection data from 2019 to 2050 show variation across the study area. Dukes County
and the town of Plymouth are projected to see increases of 38.3% and 29.7%, respectively. Nantucket
County is also projected to experience growth initially, but then decline, leading to an overall 28.7%
increase by 2050. In contrast, Barnstable County and the town of Bourne are projected to experience
declines, with Barnstable County losing 12.7% of households and the town of Bourne decreasing by
4.8%. The town of Sandwich is projected to see growth of 4.4% (Table 3-9).
Table 3 -9 . Number of Households, Projections 2019-2050
Geography 2019 2030 2040 2050
Change
(2019-2050)
Change
(2030-2050)
Change
(2040-2050)
Town of Bourne 8,611 8,289 8,960 8,200 -4.8% -1.1% -8.5%
Town of Plymouth 23,345 28,869 28,465 30,283 29.7% 4.9% 6.4%
Town of Sandwich 7,818 7,991 8,232 8,159 4.4% 2.1% -0.9%
Barnstable County 94,323 100,263 86,173 82,313 -12.7% -17.9% -4.5%
Dukes County 6,765 9,085 9,170 9,359 38.3% 3.0% 2.1%
Nantucket County 3,713 6,026 5,875 4,780 28.7% -20.7% -18.6%
Source: Estimates are the latest data from UMass Donahue Institute Population, Household, and Employment Projections
2010-2050, Statewide Model Run 97, July 2023. No projections available at the Census Tract level.
10 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.3.2 Median Household Income
Median household incomes vary widely across geographic areas. Nantucket County stands out with the
highest median income, followed by the towns of Sandwich and Plymouth. In contrast, Dukes County
and Census Tract 139 (in the town of Bourne) have the lowest median income, falling below $80,000,
while Massachusetts has a median income of just under $100,000.
In terms of nominal median household income changes from 2010 to 2022, Census Tract 137 (in the
town of Bourne) and Nantucket County saw the largest percentage increases. Barnstable County and
Massachusetts also experienced substantial nominal growth, with increases of around 50%. In
comparison, Dukes County and Census Tract 139 (in the town of Bourne) saw the smallest changes,
with more modest increases of 24.0% and 21.7%, respectively (Table 3-10).
Table 3 -10. Median Household Income
Geographic Area
Median Household
Income
(2010$)
Median Household
Income
(2022$)
Nominal
Change
(2010$-2022$)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) $53,274 $88,370 65.9%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) $68,597 $100,152 46.0%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) $70,197 $85,429 21.7%
Town of Bourne $61,418 $90,640 47.6%
Town of Plymouth $74,767 $107,067 43.2%
Town of Sandwich $83,325 $121,038 45.3%
Barnstable County $60,317 $90,447 50.0%
Dukes County $62,407 $77,392 24.0%
Nantucket County $83,347 $135,590 62.7%
Massachusetts $64,509 $96,505 49.6%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP03
11 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.3.3 Per-Capita Income
Per-capita income patterns mirror those of median household income, with Nantucket County showing
the highest levels, while the towns of Sandwich and Plymouth also report comparatively high figures.
Dukes County and Barnstable County show lower moderate-income levels compared to these regions.
In terms of nominal growth from 2010 to 2022, most areas saw increases, with the towns of Bourne
and Plymouth and other regions showing strong gains. Nantucket County, despite having the highest
income, experienced the smallest percentage growth, while other areas, such as Dukes County, saw
more moderate increases (Table 3-11).
Table 3 -11. Per-Capita Income
Geographic Area
Per-Capita
Income
(2010$)
Per-Capita
Income
(2022$)
Nominal
Change
(2010$-2022$)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) $26,339 $45,448 72.6%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) $29,700 $51,191 72.4%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) $34,556 $54,509 57.7%
Town of Bourne $30,299 $52,301 72.6%
Town of Plymouth $33,163 $55,811 68.3%
Town of Sandwich $35,372 $59,623 68.6%
Barnstable County $35,246 $55,940 58.7%
Dukes County $33,390 $51,354 53.8%
Nantucket County $53,410 $62,153 16.4%
Massachusetts $33,966 $53,513 57.5%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP03
12 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.3.4 Families Below Poverty Level
Poverty rates within the study area fall below the statewide average, with Barnstable County being the
highest within the region at 4.1%. Families with children experienced higher poverty rates overall,
except for Nantucket County and the town of Sandwich.
From 2010 to 2022, most areas saw a decline in poverty rates for both families and families with
children. The highest reductions were observed in Census Tract 138 (in the town of Bourne) and the
town of Bourne for all families, and Census Tract 138 also saw the largest decline for families with
children. The town of Sandwich was one of the few places to show a slight increase in poverty rates
during this period. Compared to the state, most localities experienced a more pronounced decline in
family poverty rates (Table 3-12).
Table 3 -12. Families Below Poverty Level and Families with Children Below Poverty Level
Geographic Area
All Families
(2022)
All Families
Change
(2010-2022)
Families with
Children (2022)
Families with
Children Change
(2010-2022)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 4.7% -1.2% 8.7% 5.0%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 1.9% -8.0% 5.0% -9.2%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 4.2% -6.5% 4.6% -4.9%
Town of Bourne 2.9% -4.7% 5.9% -3.3%
Town of Plymouth 3.2% -1.7% 6.9% 0.8%
Town of Sandwich 3.5% 2.1% 3.4% 1.5%
Barnstable County 4.1% -0.9% 7.8% -0.6%
Dukes County 2.3% -3.2% 3.0% -1.8%
Nantucket County 1.0% -2.6% 0.0% -4.1%
Massachusetts 6.5% -1.0% 9.9% -1.6%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP03
13 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.4 Housing
Table 3-13 indicates a clear increase in the number of occupied housing units across all regions from
2010 to 2022. Among the towns and counties, the town of Plymouth experienced the largest rise,
adding more than 4,000 housing units, followed by Barnstable County with 1,805 additional units.
Nantucket and Dukes Counties also saw notable increases in housing occupancy, despite their smaller
size.
Table 3 -13. Occupied Housing Units
Geographic Area
Occupied
Housing Units
(2010)
Occupied
Housing Units
(2022)
Absolute
Change
(2010-2022)
Change
(2010-2022)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 1,587 1,916 329 20.7%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 1,879 2,217 338 18.0%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 1,943 2,314 371 19.1%
Town of Bourne 7,730 8,715 985 12.7%
Town of Plymouth 21,177 25,217 4,040 19.1%
Town of Sandwich 7,635 7,977 342 4.5%
Barnstable County 98,164 99,969 1,805 1.8%
Dukes County 5,530 6,899 1,369 24.8%
Nantucket County 3,623 4,659 1,036 28.6%
Massachusetts 2,512,552 2,740,995 228,443 9.1%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP04
When looking at the percentage change, Nantucket and Dukes Counties stand out with the highest
growth rates, at 28.6% and 24.8%, respectively. The town of Plymouth also experienced strong growth,
nearing 20%. In contrast, Barnstable County and the town of Sandwich showed much more modest
increases.
14 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.4.1 Owner- Versus Renter-Occupied Housing Units
Owner-occupied housing dominates in most areas, particularly in the town of Sandwich and Barnstable
County, where over 80% of housing units are owner-occupied. Nantucket and Dukes Counties have
relatively higher proportions of renter-occupied units, yet most regions show a clear preference for
homeownership, particularly when compared to the statewide average (Table 3-14).
Table 3 -14. Owner- Versus Renter-Occupied Housing Units
Geographic Area
Owner-Occupied
Housing Units
(percentage)
Renter-Occupied
Housing Units
(percentage)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 73.8% 26.2%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 79.8% 20.2%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 81.5% 18.5%
Town of Bourne 76.5% 23.5%
Town of Plymouth 79.7% 20.3%
Town of Sandwich 88.9% 11.1%
Barnstable County 81.4% 18.6%
Dukes County 76.6% 23.4%
Nantucket County 71.1% 28.9%
Massachusetts 62.4% 37.6%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2018-2022, Table DP04
15 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.4.2 Median Home Value
Most areas experienced a substantial increase in median home values from 2010 to 2022. Dukes
County stands out with the most dramatic rise, where median home values surged by 154.2%, far
exceeding other regions. Nantucket County, while already having the highest median home values, saw
a moderate increase of 26.6% over the 12 years, reflecting slower growth compared to Dukes County
but still maintaining the highest absolute home values. Other areas experienced more modest growth
over this period (Table 3-15).
Table 3 -15. Median Home Value
Geographic Area
Median Home Value
(2010$)
Median Home Value
(2022$)
Nominal Change
(2010$-2022$)
Census Tract 137 $306,300 $441,600 44.2%
Census Tract 138 $373,800 $488,300 30.6%
Census Tract 139 $370,900 $473,900 27.8%
Town of Bourne $364,000 $482,600 32.6%
Town of Plymouth $354,500 $461,500 30.2%
Town of Sandwich $381,200 $482,300 26.5%
Barnstable County $392,700 $519,100 32.2%
Dukes County $392,700 $998,100 154.2%
Nantucket County $1,000,000 $1,265,600 26.6%
Massachusetts $352,300 $483,900 37.4%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP04
16 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.4.3 Age of Housing Stock
Table 3-16 reveals that Massachusetts has an older housing stock, with 36.3% of homes built in 1949
or earlier. This pattern of older homes is also seen, though to a lesser extent, in areas like Census Tract
137 and Dukes and Nantucket Counties, where a large portion of homes were constructed before
1950. In contrast, areas like Barnstable County and the town of Sandwich have a large share of homes
built during the 1970s and 1980s. In terms of recent construction (2010-2022), Plymouth County
stands out with 11.7% of homes built during this period.
Table 3 -16. Year Structure Built
Geographic Area
Built
(2010-2022)
Built
(1990-2009)
Built
(1970-1989)
Built
(1950-1969)
Built
(1949 or
(Earlier
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 7.5% 22.2% 21.7% 19.7% 29.0%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 2.0% 32.5% 38.1% 17.5% 9.9%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 2.9% 21.2% 37.4% 19.7% 18.8%
Town of Bourne 3.5% 24.0% 32.9% 19.7% 19.9%
Town of Plymouth 11.7% 20.0% 33.7% 15.4% 19.1%
Town of Sandwich 2.5% 24.3% 46.9% 15.9% 10.5%
Barnstable County 3.4% 18.4% 40.8% 22.7% 14.8%
Dukes County 4.7% 25.5% 38.0% 11.8% 20.1%
Nantucket County 5.0% 32.6% 31.0% 10.2% 21.0%
Massachusetts 5.6% 14.7% 22.2% 21.1% 36.3%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2018-2022, Table DP04
3.4.4 Housing Cost-Burdened Households
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development defines cost-burdened families as those
“who pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing.” In general, the percentage of renters
burdened by housing costs is higher than that of owners across most areas (Table 3-17). Dukes County
and Barnstable County report particularly high-cost burdens for both renters and owners, with Dukes
County showing the highest percentage of cost-burdened owners. In contrast, Nantucket County has a
notably high percentage of cost-burdened owners, but a lower percentage of burdened renters
compared to other regions. In Census Tract 139, almost three-quarters of renters are cost burdened.
The prevalence of second homes and seasonal residences in areas like Barnstable, Dukes County, and
Nantucket Counties has created distinct economic and social dynamics. In some towns, more than half
of the housing stock is used for seasonal purposes, leading to population fluctuations between summer
and winter. This high concentration of vacation homes drives up property values and exacerbates
17 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
housing affordability issues for year-round residents, while also straining local infrastructure during
peak tourist months. In addition, there has been a decline in the number of seasonal workers, which
poses challenges for businesses trying to meet the needs of the increasing summer population.
Many towns in these counties have been designated as “seasonal communities” under Massachusetts
law. The “seasonal community” designation is a legal and planning term that applies to areas where a
large proportion of homes are used seasonally, such as vacation homes. This designation has specific
implications for housing policy and community planning, especially in areas like Cape Cod, Martha’s
Vineyard (Dukes County), and Nantucket County.
Table 3 -17. Housing Cost-Burdened Households, 2022
Geographic Area
Renters
Burdened (2022)
Owners
Burdened (2022)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 54.0% 36.6%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 48.5% 31.1%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 73.7% 46.6%
Town of Bourne 62.6% 34.8%
Town of Plymouth 52.3% 33.5%
Town of Sandwich 36.9% 29.5%
Barnstable County 58.0% 36.8%
Dukes County 57.3% 55.3%
Nantucket County 35.7% 54.7%
Massachusetts 50.2% 29.8%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2018-2022, Table DP04
18 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5 Employment and Workforce Characteristics
3.5.1 Educational Attainment
Overall, most of the areas show a level of education equal to or greater than the statewide average of
bachelor’s degrees or higher. Nantucket County stands out for having the highest proportion of
residents holding a bachelor’s degree or higher. All areas experienced an increase in the proportion of
residents with bachelor’s degrees from 2010 to 2022, with Nantucket County and the town of
Plymouth experiencing the largest increases (Table 3-18), aside from Census Tracts 138 and 139.
Table 3 -18. Educational Attainment, Residents Aged 25 and Older with Bachelor’s Degree or
Higher
Geographic Area
Bachelor's degree
or higher
(2010)
Bachelor's degree
or higher
(2022)
Change
(2010-2022)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 28.6% 30.8% 2.2%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 37.1% 50.8% 13.7%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 37.0% 51.3% 14.3%
Town of Bourne 36.2% 46.2% 10.0%
Town of Plymouth 32.6% 44.4% 11.8%
Town of Sandwich 47.2% 49.5% 2.3%
Barnstable County 40.5% 46.1% 5.6%
Dukes County 40.0% 43.2% 3.2%
Nantucket County 40.2% 57.4% 17.2%
Massachusetts 38.3% 45.9% 7.6%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP02
19 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.2 Employment Status
In 2022, the percentage of the employed workforce showed some variation across the region, with
Census Tract 138, Nantucket County, and Dukes County having relatively higher percentages of
employed individuals. In contrast, Barnstable County overall and the town of Bourne had lower
employment percentages, though they were still comparable to statewide averages. The share of those
not in the labor force also varied, with Barnstable County and Census Tract 139 showing a higher
proportion compared to other areas.
When comparing changes from 2010 to 2022, several geographic areas saw increases in the
percentage of the workforce not in the labor force, particularly Nantucket County (Table 3-19).
Table 3 -19. Employment Status
Geographic Area Employed Unemployed
Armed
Forces
Not in
Labor Force
Percentage Change
Not in Labor Force
(2010-2022)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 61.2% 1.1% 1.0% 36.7% -6.3%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 71.6% 2.6% 0.3% 25.5% -8.6%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 56.5% 0.8% 0.0% 42.7% 3.9%
Town of Bourne 59.8% 1.3% 1.4% 37.5% 0.0%
Town of Plymouth 60.7% 3.8% 0.1% 35.4% 3.1%
Town of Sandwich 63.4% 2.1% 0.3% 34.2% 4.6%
Barnstable County 56.8% 2.7% 0.3% 40.3% 1.0%
Dukes County 60.3% 4.6% 0.1% 35.1% 2.1%
Nantucket County 66.4% 3.9% 0.0% 29.6% 5.9%
Massachusetts 63.5% 3.6% 0.1% 32.9% 0.6%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2018-2022, Table DP03
20 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.3 Class of Worker
Of those who were employed, most worked in the private sector, although the percentage employed
for all areas was below the statewide average, except from Census Tract 139. Dukes County and
Nantucket County exhibited relatively high rates of self-employment, with most other areas also
showing self-employment levels exceeding the state average (Table 3-20).
Table 3 -20. Class of Worker
Geographic Area
Private Wage and
Salary Workers
Government
Workers Self-Employed
Unpaid Family
Workers
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 75.2% 16.9% 6.7% 1.2%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 78.4% 10.6% 11.0% 0.0%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 87.6% 10.9% 1.5% 0.0%
Town of Bourne 78.8% 12.7% 8.3% 0.3%
Town of Plymouth 77.1% 13.7% 9.0% 0.2%
Town of Sandwich 76.5% 16.7% 6.7% 0.1%
Barnstable County 78.3% 12.7% 8.8% 0.3%
Dukes County 70.8% 10.7% 18.0% 0.5%
Nantucket County 69.5% 13.8% 16.4% 0.3%
Massachusetts 81.8% 12.5% 5.6% 0.2%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2018-2022, Table DP03
21 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.4 Method of Commute
The study region’s geographic areas show a reliance on driving alone to work greater than the
statewide average. Public transportation use is quite low compared to Massachusetts overall. Walking
is also uncommon in many areas, though it is more prevalent in Nantucket County, where over 7% of
people walk to work. Notably, the percentage of people working from home has increased across all
areas between 2010 and 2022 (Table 3-21).
Table 3 -21. Method of Commute, 2022
Geographic Area
Car,
truck, or
van --
drove
alone
Car,
truck, or
van --
carpooled
Public
Trans. Walked
Other
means
Worked
from
home
Worked
from
Home
Change
(2010-
2022)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 73.4% 5.1% 1.4% 3.1% 1.5% 15.5% 12.5%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 81.0% 5.8% 0.3% 0.7% 1.4% 10.7% 9.6%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 88.6% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 2.7%
Town of Bourne 79.0% 7.0% 0.6% 1.0% 1.3% 11.1% 8.2%
Town of Plymouth 71.1% 8.7% 1.8% 2.1% 1.8% 14.4% 9.1%
Town of Sandwich 76.8% 7.0% 1.1% 0.4% 2.8% 11.9% 5.2%
Barnstable County 74.7% 7.1% 1.2% 2.1% 1.8% 13.1% 7.5%
Dukes County 66.2% 7.5% 1.5% 3.3% 1.9% 19.6% 10.8%
Nantucket County 69.7% 8.9% 1.4% 7.1% 2.6% 10.3% 0.7%
Massachusetts 64.2% 7.0% 7.6% 4.3% 2.3% 14.6% 10.6%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2018-2022, Table DP03
22 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.5 Mean Travel Time to Work
Table 3-22 highlights differences in average travel times to work across the geographic areas. Overall,
commute times reflect labor market areas, which are, as expected given their geographic isolation,
fewer in Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties. Average commute times declined slightly
between 2010 and 2022 except for workers in the town of Plymouth and in Census Tract 138.
Table 3 -22. Mean Travel Time to Work, 2010 and 2022
Geographic Area
Mean Travel Time
to Work (minutes)
(2010)
Mean Travel Time
to Work (minutes)
(2022)
Change
(2010-2022)
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 29.7 31.1 -1.40
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 29.2 25.7 3.50
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 29.7 31.4 -1.70
Town of Bourne 27.3 28.4 -1.10
Town of Plymouth 33.7 30.9 2.80
Town of Sandwich 27.6 28.2 -0.60
Barnstable County 23.9 25.0 -1.10
Dukes County 16.0 15.7 -0.30
Nantucket County 10.3 13.7 -3.40
Massachusetts 27.3 29.4 -2.10
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2006-2010 and 2018-2022, Table DP03
23 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.6 Number of Vehicles
Table 3-23 illustrates the distribution of vehicle availability among households across the study areas.
In most areas, the majority of households have access to either one or two vehicles. In contrast,
Massachusetts has a higher percentage of households without vehicles.
Table 3 -23. Number of Vehicles per Household
Geographic Area
Zero
Vehicles
Available
One
Vehicle
Available
Two
Vehicles
Available
Three or More
Vehicles
Available
Census Tract 137 (Bourne) 6.7% 41.5% 32.1% 19.7%
Census Tract 138 (Bourne) 1.5% 29.0% 42.8% 26.8%
Census Tract 139 (Bourne) 2.5% 35.6% 50.2% 11.8%
Town of Bourne 4.4% 33.3% 42.9% 19.4%
Town of Plymouth 4.7% 30.4% 46.8% 18.1%
Town of Sandwich 2.0% 26.9% 42.5% 28.6%
Barnstable County 5.0% 33.3% 41.2% 20.5%
Dukes County 3.9% 32.0% 37.3% 26.8%
Nantucket County 4.0% 27.1% 44.7% 24.2%
Massachusetts 11.9% 35.5% 35.9% 16.7%
Source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2018-2022, Table DP04
24 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.7 Total Employment and Business Characteristics
From 2010 to 2022, employment increased across all listed areas, with Nantucket County experiencing
the highest percentage growth at 39.6% (2,259 jobs). Other notable increases include the town of
Sandwich (16.9%) and Dukes County (16.1%). The town of Plymouth saw the largest absolute growth
among the towns, adding 3,297 jobs (14.5%), while Barnstable County added 6,076 jobs (6.9%).
Massachusetts as a whole experienced a 14.1% increase in employment, with 444,943 new jobs
(Table 3-24).
Table 3 -24. Employment, 2010 and 2022
Geographic Area 2010 2022
Absolute Change
(2010-2022)
Percentage Change
(2010-2022)
Town of Bourne 7,273 8,101 828 11.4%
Town of Plymouth 22,779 26,076 3,297 14.5%
Town of Sandwich 5,291 6,185 894 16.9%
Barnstable County 88,699 94,775 6,076 6.9%
Dukes County 7,735 8,981 1,246 16.1%
Nantucket County 5,704 7,963 2,259 39.6%
Massachusetts 3,151,206 3,596,149 444,943 14.1%
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES202 dataset. Data for census tracts are
not available. ES202 measures employment in the geographic areas regardless of where a person resides.
3.5.8 Average Annual Wage
While most areas fall below the state’s wage level, particularly the towns of Plymouth and Sandwich,
the gap has narrowed. The state’s 2022 average wage still stands higher than all of the Study Areas.
In terms of nominal wage growth, all regions have experienced increases from 2010 to 2022, with
Dukes County showing the most increase, more than doubling its average wage over this period.
Similarly, the town of Bourne, and Barnstable and Nantucket Counties have also posted gains, with
nominal growth rates close to or exceeding 100% (Table 3-25).
Table 3 -25. Annual Average Nominal Wages, 2010 and 2022
Geographic Area
Average Wage
(2010$)
Average Wage
(2022$)
Percentage Change
(2010-2022)
Town of Bourne $41,080 $63,648 54.9%
Town of Plymouth $43,056 $58,708 36.4%
Town of Sandwich $38,844 $54,028 39.1%
Barnstable County $39,156 $57,980 48.1%
25 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Geographic Area
Average Wage
(2010$)
Average Wage
(2022$)
Percentage Change
(2010-2022)
Dukes County $41,912 $66,716 59.2%
Nantucket County $45,552 $75,296 65.3%
Massachusetts $57,824 $89,804 55.3%
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES202 dataset. Data are not inflation
adjusted. Data for census tracts not available.
3.5.9 Establishments
Overall, the entire Cape and Islands region is experiencing increases in the number of business
establishments compared to statewide trends, particularly over the last decade. Nantucket County and
the town of Plymouth had the largest increases from 2001 to 2023, while Dukes County experienced
the largest recent growth, with the number of business establishments rising 26.0% between 2014 and
2023 (Table 3-26).
Table 3 -26. Number of Establishments, 2001, 2014, and 2023
Geographic Area 2001 2014 2023
Establishments
Added
(2001-2023)
Change
(2001-2023)
Change
(2014-2023)
Town of Bourne 654 725 797 143 21.9% 9.9%
Town of Plymouth 1,277 1,704 2,060 783 61.3% 20.9%
Town of Sandwich 523 628 736 213 40.7% 17.2%
Barnstable County 8,554 9,191 10,057 1,503 17.6% 9.4%
Dukes County 1,093 1,201 1,513 420 38.4% 26.0%
Nantucket County 821 1,064 1,326 505 61.5% 24.6%
Massachusetts 193,547 234,695 291,125 97,578 50.4% 24.0%
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES202 dataset.
Data for census tracts not available.
26 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.10 Largest Industries by 2-Digit NAICS
The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)1 is a standardized system used by the U.S.,
Canada, and Mexico to categorize businesses based on the type of work they do. Each industry is
assigned a six-digit code that helps organize businesses into broad sectors (like Manufacturing or
Retail) and then into more specific categories (such as Food Production or Electronics Stores). This
system makes it easier for governments, researchers, and businesses to collect and analyze economic
data, track trends like employment and growth, and compare industries across North America.
Updated every five years, NAICS ensures it reflects changes in the economy, such as new technologies
and emerging industries.
Figure 3-2 describes the percentage distribution of total employment for each area, highlighting the
leading industry sectors according to their 2-digit NAICS codes. These sectors are shown based on their
relative contribution to overall employment in each geographic area.2
Employment patterns in Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties reveal a reliance on tourism-
related industries—particularly accommodation, food services, and retail—compared to
Massachusetts overall. Nantucket County includes relatively large employment in construction as well
as tourism, reflecting its ongoing development and seasonal demand. In contrast, Barnstable County’s
employment distribution is more balanced, with health care and retail also playing measurable roles.
Dukes County follows a similar trend, relying heavily on tourism but with a slightly more diverse
employment base.
1 The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is a standardized system used by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico
to classify businesses and industries for the purpose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data related to the
economy.
2 The top industries were identified based on employment for Barnstable County, Dukes County, and Nantucket County
combined.
27 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Figure 3 -2 . Percentage of Total Employment for Top Employment Industries by 2 -Digit NAICS,
2022
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES202 dataset.
Data for census tracts not available.
9%
23%
18%
16%
12%
8%
18%
13%
14%
17%
16%
14%
21%
8%
14%
15%
10%
16%
15%
15%
9%
8%
7%
8%
8%
10%
17%
5%
11%
7%
14%
8%
8%
0%
10%
8%
6%
5%
6%
7%
4%
4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Bourne
Plymouth
Sandwich
Barnstable County
Dukes County
Nantucket County
Massachusetts
Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services
Retail Trade Construction
Educational Services Public Administration
28 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.11 Most Jobs Added, 2010-2022 , Major Sectors (2-Digit NAICS)
Figure 3-3 describes the number of jobs added between 2010 and 2022 by sector for the Cape and
Islands (Barnstable County, Dukes County, Nantucket County), and the town of Plymouth combined.
The largest increase in jobs is in the Construction (4,649 jobs) sector, which is not surprising given the
ongoing development and demand for housing and infrastructure in these areas. Growth in the
Accommodation and Food Services (2,081 jobs) and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (1,001 jobs)
sectors reflects the strong tourism-driven economies in most of these geographic areas. Expansion of
jobs in the Educational Services (2,214 jobs) and Health Care and Social Assistance (680 jobs) sectors, a
major growth sector in the state, indicates support for year-round as well as seasonal residents.
Figure 3 -3 . Most Jobs Added, 2010-2022 , 2-Digit NAICS
4,649
2,214
2,081
1,863
1,001
986
680
486
486
443
Construction
Educational Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Administrative and Waste Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Professional and Technical Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Transportation and Warehousing
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES202 dataset.
Data for census tracts not available.
29 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.12 Percentage of Total Employment for 3-Digit NAICS Sectors
Figure 3-4 describes the percentage distribution of total employment for each area, highlighting the
leading industry sectors according to their 3-digit NAICS codes. These sectors are shown based on their
relative contribution to overall employment in each geographic area.3
The data show the Food Services and Drinking Places (mostly restaurants) sector to be the largest
employers in each geographic area.
Figure 3 -4 . Percentage of Total Employment for Top Employment Industries by 3 -Digit NAICS,
2022
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES202 dataset.
Data for census tracts not available.
3 The top industries were identified based on employment for Barnstable County, Dukes County, and Nantucket County
combined.
4%
5%
5%
5%
6%
10%
3%
11%
7%
14%
8%
8%
10%
12%
12%
15%
13%
11%
17%
7%
4%
3%
5%
4%
5%
11%
5%
2%
1%
2%
2%
4%
4%
1%
0%10%20%30%40%50%
Bourne
Plymouth
Sandwich
Barnstable
County
Dukes County
Nantucket
Massachusetts
Specialty trade contractors Educational Services Food services and drinking places
Administrative and support services Construction of buildings
30 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.13 Most Jobs Added, 2010-2022 by 3-Digit NAICS
Figure 3-5 describes the number of jobs added between 2010 and 2022 by 3-digit NAICS sector for the
Cape and Islands (Barnstable County, Dukes County, Nantucket County), and the town of Plymouth
combined. The largest increase in jobs is in the Specialty Trade Contractor sector, which added 3,272
workers. Educational Services is another substantial sector, which added 2,214 workers, followed by
Food Services and Drinking Places with 1,885 workers, reflecting labor requirements in the hospitality
and service industries.
Figure 3 -5 . Most Jobs Added, 2010-2022 , 3-Digit NAICS
3,272
2,214
1,885
1,669
1,183
986
716
451
441
357
317
234
197
Specialty trade contractors
Educational Services
Food services and drinking places
Administrative and support services
Construction of buildings
Professional and Technical Services
Amusements, gambling, and recreation
Social assistance
Food and beverage stores
Ambulatory health care services
Building material/garden supply stores
Hospitals
Accommodation
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES202 dataset.
Data for census tracts not available.
31 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.14 Employment Trends in Retail Trade
From 2001 to 2023, retail employment in Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties fluctuated,
notably during the 2007–2009 recession and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Barnstable County reached
a peak of 17,210 retail jobs in 2004, declining to 13,762 jobs by 2020—a 20.0% drop from its peak.
Dukes County’s retail employment was stable until 2020, when it fell 16.4% from a 2017 high of 1,489
to 1,197 jobs. Nantucket County’s retail jobs decreased from 1,115 in 2005 to 831 in 2010, with a
similar drop in 2020, reaching 911 jobs—a 20.1% decrease from its peak. Barnstable County began a
recovery in retail employment from 2021 to 2023, while Dukes and Nantucket Counties leveled out
(Figure 3-6).
Figure 3 -6 . Employment Trends in Retail Trade
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES202 dataset.
Data for census tracts not available.
80
90
100
110
120
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023Index = 100 Year
Barnstable County Dukes County Nantucket County
32 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.15 Employment Trends in Accommodation/Food Services
From 2001 to 2023, employment in the Accommodations and Food Services sector in Barnstable,
Dukes, and Nantucket Counties saw notable fluctuations, particularly due to the 2020 COVID-19
pandemic. In Barnstable County, employment grew steadily from 14,317 in 2001 to a peak of 16,445 in
2017 but then dropped sharply to 11,765 in 2020—a 28.4% decline from 2019. Recovery efforts
brought employment back up to pre-pandemic level—15,759 by 2023.
Dukes County’s employment rose consistently until 2019, reaching 1,445 jobs before falling 36.5% to
906 in 2020. By 2023, employment had rebounded to 1,391, nearing pre-pandemic levels.
Similarly, Nantucket County’s employment grew from 1,324 in 2001 to 1,618 in 2019, then dropped
37.6% to 1,010 in 2020. By 2023, employment had not only recovered but slightly surpassed pre-
pandemic levels, reaching 1,630 (Figure 3-7). The spike shown in 2021 is a consequence of stimulus
payments to households and businesses.
Figure 3 -7 . Employment Trends in Accommodation/Food Services
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES202 dataset.
Data for census tracts not available.
60
80
100
120
140
160
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023Index = 100 Year
Barnstable County Dukes County Nantucket County
33 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.16 Employment Trends in Healthcare
From 2001 to 2023, healthcare employment in Dukes County grew steadily, despite COVID-19
pandemic-related impacts in 2020. In Barnstable County, which has seen more variability, employment
increased from 10,843 in 2001 to a peak of 14,386 in 2018, then declined 12% to 12,731 in 2020.
Recovery has been slow, with employment reaching 12,431 in 2023. Dukes County saw growth from
160 jobs in 2001 to a high of 355 in 2023, despite a dip to 252 jobs in 2014 and a minor decline in 2020.
Overall, the healthcare sector has shown resilience, although the pace of recovery since 2020 differs
across these regions (Figure 3-8).
Figure 3 -8 . Employment Trends in Healthcare
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES202 dataset.
Data for census tracts not available.
3.5.17 Room and Meals Tax Revenues
Room taxes and meals taxes represent revenue generated from taxes on hotel, motel, and short-term
rental accommodations (room taxes) and taxes on restaurant meals and beverages (meals taxes).
These taxes provide insight into the level of tourism and hospitality activity, as they reflect the volume
of visitors staying in paid accommodations and dining at establishments.
In Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, Barnstable County led the way in rooms tax collections, bringing in
$38.3 million. Nantucket and Dukes Counties followed, with collections of $13.7 million and $9.3
million, respectively. Among towns, Plymouth collected the most, with just over $3.1 million, while
Sandwich and Bourne brought in $1 million and nearly $1 million each (Table 3-27 and Figure 3-9).
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023Index = 100 Year
Barnstable County Dukes County Nantucket County
34 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Table 3 -27. Room Tax Revenues, FY 2013 and FY 2024
Geographic Area FY 2013 FY 2024
Change
(2013-2024)
Town of Bourne $79,198 $983,819 1,142%
Town of Plymouth $1,100,264 $3,101,984 182%
Town of Sandwich $206,651 $1,002,734 385%
Barnstable County $8,499,649 $38,279,898 350%
Dukes County $1,525,328 $9,309,458 510%
Nantucket County $2,346,122 $13,678,172 483%
Massachusetts $154,787,140 $358,837,702 132%
Source: Massachusetts Office of Travel and Tourism from Massachusetts Department of Revenue Data
FY = Fiscal Year
Figure 3 -9 . Room Tax Revenues by Fiscal Year, FY 2013 to FY 2024
Source: Massachusetts Office of Travel and Tourism from Massachusetts Department of Revenue Data
The percentage change from FY 2013 to FY 2024 indicates growth across all areas. The town of Bourne
saw the largest increase, with a remarkable 1,142% growth, an average annual growth rate of over
100%. Dukes and Nantucket Counties also experienced substantial increases, with 510% and
483% growth, respectively. Barnstable County saw its collections grow by 350%, while the towns of
Sandwich and Plymouth recorded increases of 385% and 182%, respectively. This growth highlights a
sharp rise in tourism and lodging activity in these regions over the period.
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24MillionsBarnstable County Dukes County Nantucket County
Town of Bourne Town of Plymouth Town of Sandwich
35 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.5.18 Meal Tax Revenues
In FY 2024, Barnstable County collected the highest amount of meals tax revenue, totaling $8.3 million.
Nantucket County followed with $1.7 million, and Dukes County collected $758,677. Among the towns,
Plymouth generated the most revenue with $2.16 million, while Sandwich and Bourne collected
$586,786 and $619,052, respectively. The percentage change from FY 2013 to FY 2024 indicates
notable growth across all areas. Dukes County experienced the largest increase, with a 224% rise, while
the town of Sandwich saw 140% growth (Table 3-28 and Figure 3-10).
Table 3 -28. Meal Tax Revenues, FY 2013 and FY 2024
Geographic Area FY 2013 FY 2024
Change
(2013-2024)
Town of Bourne 303,340 619,052 104%
Town of Plymouth 973,426 2,158,419 122%
Town of Sandwich 244,506 586,786 140%
Barnstable County 3,588,128 8,281,969 131%
Dukes County 234,152 758,677 224%
Nantucket County 783,557 1,657,018 111%
Massachusetts 89,257,234 186,410,402 109%
Source: Massachusetts Office of Travel and Tourism from Massachusetts Department of Revenue Data
FY = Fiscal Year
Figure 3 -10. Meals Tax Revenues by Fiscal Year, FY 2013 to FY 2024
Source: Massachusetts Office of Travel and Tourism from Massachusetts Department of Revenue Data
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24MillionsBarnstable County Dukes County Nantucket County
Town of Bourne Town of Plymouth Town of Sandwich
36 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
3.6 Commercial Real Estate
This section examines conditions and trends in the supply of commercial real estate on Cape Cod
(Barnstable County), including office, retail, and industrial space. The towns of Bourne and Sandwich
are shown for the relative contribution of these communities nearest the bridges. The source of the
data used in this analysis is the subscription service CoStar Property Information Systems, the most
widely used industry source of information on commercial real estate.
3.6.1 Office Space
Figure 3-11 indicates trends in the inventory and occupancy of office space in Barnstable County.
Figure 3 -11 Historical Inventory and Occupancy in Square Feet Office Space, 2006-2024
(Barnstable County)
Source: Massachusetts Department of Transportation, 2024
The supply of office space in Barnstable County totaled approximately 5,900,000 square feet in 2024,
an increase of 370,000 square feet, or 7%, since 2006. The average annual historical increase of 20,000
square feet per year is somewhat higher than a trend-line projected growth of 17,000 square feet per
year. Occupied square feet increased by 267,000 square feet, or 5%, over the same period, and about
15,000 square feet per year. As with projected inventory growth, occupancy is also projected to grow
less—by 10,500 square feet per year—based on a least-square linear extrapolation of historical trends.
Vacancy rates have average about 4% since 2006 with only minor variations in a given year.
Figure 3-12 compares the relative shares of office inventory and occupancy held in the towns of
Bourne and Sandwich. These have remained consistent over the historical period with minor fall offs
from the historical average of relative occupancy of office space in 2013 and 2024.
5,100,000
5,200,000
5,300,000
5,400,000
5,500,000
5,600,000
5,700,000
5,800,000
5,900,000
6,000,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024Square Feet (SF)Inventory SF Occupancy SF
37 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Figure 3 -12. Office Space Inventory and Occupancy Percentage, 2006-2024 (Towns of Bourne
and Sandwich and Barnstable County)
Source: Massachusetts Department of Transportation, 2024
Figure 3-13 compares office space rents (per square foot per month) in the towns of Bourne and
Sandwich to Barnstable County overall. As the data show, there have been only minor increases in the
lease rates for office space since 2006.
Figure 3 -13. Office Rents, 2006-2024 (Towns of Bourne and Sandwich Compared to Barnstable
County Overall)
Source: Massachusetts Department of Transportation, 2024
6.0%
6.2%
6.4%
6.6%
6.8%
7.0%
7.2%
7.4%
7.6%
7.8%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Bourne & Sandwich % Barnstable County Inventory
Bourne & Sandwich % Barnstable County Occupancy
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Bourne & Sandwich Office Base Rent Barnstable County Office Base Rent
38 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
The overall picture that emerges from these data is that the market for office space on Cape Cod has
grown negligibly over the past 18 years—in terms of supply, occupancy, and rents. Continuation of
long-term and recent historical trends suggests only very modest new demand or development of
office space in the foreseeable future.
3.6.2 Retail Space
Figure 3-14 indicates trends in the inventory and occupancy of retail space in Barnstable County.
Figure 3 -14. Historical Inventory and Occupancy in Square Feet Retail Space, 2006-2014
(Barnstable County)
Source: Massachusetts Department of Transportation, 2024
The supply of retail space in Barnstable County totaled approximately 16,000,000 square feet in 2024,
an increase of 257,000 square feet, or 2%, since 2006. The average annual historical increase of 14,000
square feet per year is slightly lower than a trend-line projected growth of 16,000 square feet per year.
Occupied square feet increased by 125,000 square feet, or 1%, over the same period, and about 7,000
square feet per year. As with projected inventory growth, occupancy is also projected to grow slightly
more—by 14,000 square feet per year—based on a least-square linear extrapolation of historical
trends. Vacancy rates have averaged about 2.6% since 2006, with a slight downturn in recent years
(currently 2.0%).
Figure 3-15 compares the relative shares of retail space inventory and occupancy held in the towns of
Bourne and Sandwich. These have remained consistent over the historical period and are a lower
relative share of the Barnstable County totals of retail (average 5.5%) compared to office space (7.4%).
14,800,000
15,000,000
15,200,000
15,400,000
15,600,000
15,800,000
16,000,000
16,200,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024Square Feet (SF)Inventory SF Occupancy SF
39 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Figure 3 -15 Percentage of Retail Inventory and Occupancy in Square Feet, 2006-2014 (Town of
Bourne and Sandwich)
Source: Massachusetts Department of Transportation, 2024
Figure 3-16 compares office space rents (per square foot per month) in the towns of Bourne and
Sandwich to Barnstable County overall. As the data show, there has been almost no increase in the
average lease rates for retail space since 2006 in either of the towns closest to the bridges or the
county overall. NNN, or “triple net,” is rent net of taxes, insurance, and operating expenses.
Figure 3 -16. Retail Space Rents (Towns of Bourne and Sandwich Compared to Barnstable
County)
Source: Massachusetts Department of Transportation, 2024
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Bourne & Sandwich % Barnstable County Inventory
Bourne & Sandwich % Barnstable County Occupancy
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Bourne & Sandwich NNN Rent Barnstable County NNN Rent
40 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
The picture that emerges from these data for retail space is that growth has been almost flat since
2006, in terms of supply, occupancy, and rents. Continuation of long-term and recent historical trends
suggests negligible new demand or development of retail space in the foreseeable future.
3.6.3 Industrial Space
Figure 3-17 indicates trends in the inventory and occupancy of industrial space in Barnstable County.
Figure 3 -17. Inventory and Occupancy in Square Feet Industrial Space, 2006-2024 (Barnstable
County)
Source: Massachusetts Department of Transportation, 2024
The supply of industrial space in Barnstable County totaled nearly 5,000,000 square feet in 2024, an
increase of 464,000 square feet, or 10%, since 2006. The average annual historical increase of 26,000
square feet per year is similar to a trend-line projected growth of 26,500 square feet per year.
Occupied square feet increased by 465,000 square feet, or 11%, over the same period, and about
26,000 square feet per year. Occupancy is projected to grow by 37,000 square feet per year—based on
a least-square linear extrapolation of historical trends. Vacancy rates have averaged about 2.7% since
2006, declining in recent years to a current 1.7% vacancy rate.
Figure 3-18 compares the relative shares of industrial space inventory and occupancy held in the towns
of Bourne and Sandwich. The supply proportion has remained consistent over the historical period
while occupancy shares have declined slightly in recent years. The two towns’ relative share of the
Barnstable County totals of industrial space (average 9.1%) are higher than retail (average 5.5%) and
office space (average 7.4%).
4000000
4100000
4200000
4300000
4400000
4500000
4600000
4700000
4800000
4900000
5000000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024Square Feet (SF)Inventory SF Occupancy SF
41 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Figure 3 -18. Percentage of Industrial Space Inventory and Occupancy (Towns of Bourne and
Sandwich Compared to Barnstable County)
Source: Massachusetts Department of Transportation, 2024
Figure 3-19 presents historical lease rates for industrial space in Barnstable County (data are
insufficient for comparisons to rents in Bourne and Sandwich). NNN, or “triple net,” is rent net of taxes,
insurance, and operating expenses. Average rents for industrial space have increased by nearly 60%
over the past 5 years, far more than those for office or retail space.
Figure 3 -19. Triple Net (NNN) Rent for Industrial Space (Barnstable County)
Source: Massachusetts Department of Transportation, 2024
7.8%
8.0%
8.2%
8.4%
8.6%
8.8%
9.0%
9.2%
9.4%
9.6%
9.8%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Bourne & Sandwich % of Barnstable County Inventory
Bourne & Sandwich % of Barnstable County Occupancy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
42 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
The overall picture for industrial space in Barnstable County is more favorable for potential new
development than for either office or retail space. Rents are increasing and are as high as they are for
office or retail space where buildings are costlier and assessments typically higher. Demand for
industrial space on Cape Cod parallels that for industrial space nationally, which is mostly wholesale
and distribution space supporting e-commerce as well as brick and mortar retail.
4 Impacts of the No Build Alternative
A survey of local officials intended to elicit their views on the need for replacement of Sagamore Bridge
and Bourne Bridge describes the overwhelmingly negative impacts the current bridge conditions
already have on the quality of life on Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket. The report on the
survey was prepared by Senator Elizabeth Warren, Senator Ed Markey, and Representative Bill Keating,
together representing the Congressional Delegation for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.4
The officials’ responses centered on the detrimental impacts of the current bridges’ limitations on their
communities’ and constituents’ economic and social lives. When imagining these conditions made
even worse by more frequent lane closures, and possibly bridge closures, these officials struggled to
describe them in sufficiently dire terms. Conversely, replacing the structures was viewed as having
entirely positive impacts on the Cape and Islands.
4.1 Cape Cod Bridges Replacement: An Urgent Need (the Report)
Senator Warren, Senator Markey, and Representative Keating prepared the subject report (dated
October 2023). The Congressional delegation for this region of Massachusetts has been working to
secure funding for bridge replacement for several years, most recently by supporting the Infrastructure
Investment and Jobs Act, which contains $17 billion in new funding for the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers, with $9 billion in formula funding for Massachusetts.5 Now their advocacy centers on the
U.S. Department of Transportation and other federal agencies to fund the bridges project from this
source.
The report’s direct quoting from respondents’ replies is particularly useful for respondents’ insights
into how closely the bridges are linked to the economic life and health of Cape Cod.
4 Senators Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey and Representative Bill Keating, Cape Cod Bridges Replacement: An Urgent
Need, October 2023.
5 Cape Cod Bridges Replacement: An Urgent Need, October 2023, p. 4
43 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
4.2 Methodology (the Report)
The Senators and Representative sent 36 “letters of inquiry” to stakeholders on July 21, 2023, including
state elected officials, local elected officials, Tribal leaders, and community organizations. The letters
asked respondents about the following:
• Impacts on communities of the state of disrepair of the bridges to date—including economic
impacts to tourism, local workers, businesses, families, and community members—and impacts to
supply chains and the availability and accessibility of goods.
• The potential future impacts if the bridges continue to deteriorate.
• The benefits of replacing the bridges, including the job creation and economic benefits of the
bridges replacement project.
Of the 36 letters sent, the following entities responded:
• Cape Cod Region Chamber of Commerce
• Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce
• Town of Bourne
• Town of Oak Bluffs
• Town of Provincetown
• Town of Sandwich
• Association to Preserve Cape Cod
• Cape Cod Commission
• State Senator Julian Cyr
• State Senator Susan Moran
• Barnstable County Board of Regional Commissioners
Clearly, for those who replied, the replacement of the bridges is of paramount importance to their
constituents and members. The commonality of congestion-related issues, across towns and across
agencies and institutions, strongly supports the fundamental arguments that underpin the report.
44 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
4.3 Elements of the Report
Elements of the report that concern the qualitative impacts of the No Build Alternative are grouped
here using the following numbered “Findings” headings (bold and italicized) in the report.
4.3.1 The Cape Cod Bridges Are o f Significant Importance t o Businesses
a nd Communities 6
The Cape Cod Commission reported that about 31,000 jobs off Cape Cod were filled by workers
residing on Cape Cod; 21,000 jobs on Cape Cod (50% of the workforce serving Cape Cod) are filled by
workers living off Cape Cod (U.S. Census 2020). This means around 50,000 workers depend on
Sagamore and Bourne Bridges for their daily commutes.
State Senator Moran’s letter notes that the bridges are “the sole access points for the more than
35 million vehicles that cross the Canal each year and for the 260,000 residents” of the Cape and
Islands.
The Cape Cod Commission estimates that, in 2021, Barnstable County workers working outside the
county earned $2.9 billion, while out-of-county workers with jobs in Barnstable County earned
$814 million. Per the commission, “Nearly all industries rely in one way or another on timely and
successful crossing for employees, goods, and visitors.”
Given that Cape Cod Canal bisects the towns of Bourne and Sandwich, the two bridges are necessary
for providing basic municipal services, in addition to their role in worker travel, business operations,
and tourism and recreational travel (Bourne Select Board Chair Mary Jane Mastrangelo).
Island communities also cited their dependency on the bridges for the movement of people, goods,
services, and supplies (Oak Bluffs Town Administrator Deborah Potter). The bridges play an essential
role in the supply chain for tourism, which in turn is a vital part of the Town of Oak Bluffs’ finances.
Tourism was a major focus of attention for respondents, citing it as “the main driver of the Cape’s
economy, and if fact, the economy of the Commonwealth.” (Mark Forest, Chair of Barnstable County
Board of Regional Commissioners). The Board’s letter noted a report from the National Park Service
that estimated that the Cape Cod National Seashore brought 4 million visitors to the Cape each year.
Their economic impact was estimated at over $750 million.
Provincetown’s tourist industry is valued at over $250 million annually, according to Provincetown
officials. Most of Provincetown’s economy depends on traffic over the bridges, despite ferry service
from Boston, which operates only for half the year.
The Cape Cod Commission sees tourism as a critical component for Cape Cod’s economy as a whole
and the bridges as the access points for most of those visitors. The industry also brings in state tax
revenues.
6 Senators Elizabeth Warren and Edward Markey and Representative Bill Keating, Cape Cod Bridges Replacement: An
Urgent Need, October 2023, p. 6.
45 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
4.3.2 The Current State o f the Bridges I s Hurting Cape Cod Businesses a nd
Communities
The frequent need for maintenance and repairs on the bridges disrupts local businesses. The Cape Cod
Chamber of Commerce pointed out the issues of timeliness of product shipments, commutes, and
customer access to members’ businesses. Further, the disruptions discourage potential new customers
as well as new business development.
The closing of one lane in each direction in April and May 2023 had serious implications for Cape Cod
businesses. Some customers said they would wait until the work was done to come to Cape Cod. Sales
volumes fell, as did lodging occupancies compared to the same period in 2022. Doing business became
more costly, with overtime expenses mounting for hours spent in traffic. Cape Cod businesses have
already had problems attracting labor because of the high cost and limited availability of workforce
housing. Added to this were problems attracting and retaining staff from off Cape Cod during the
repair period.
The Town of Sandwich also reported that its local labor market is shrinking, adding bridge insecurity to
the growing costs of transportation, energy, and goods and services.
Senator Moran noted that bridge congestion exacerbates workforce shortages occurring statewide.
The state’s extreme housing shortage is reflected in her district, where employees cannot afford to live
in the communities in which they work, and are forced into lengthy commutes. The Senator’s letter
estimated that 50% of Cape Cod’s workforce lives off Cape Cod because of the housing crisis, meaning
that any traffic disruption has regional economic implications.
The Cape Cod Regional Chamber of Commerce cited the “untenable traffic congestion” as negatively
affecting the economy, causing traffic waits of over 2 hours that have also become a public safety
issue. As well, residents “cannot shop or will not leave their homes.” Truck deliveries are late—UPS,
FedEx, U.S. Postal Service—because of traffic congestion.
Town of Bourne officials shared the problems for the many workers living off Cape Cod and commuting
daily over the bridges. Late arrivals at work for employees have daily implications for them and for
school pickups as well. Building in excess travel times to make appointments after work adds to the
bridge delay times themselves. In addition to their economic impacts on businesses and employees,
the lane closures must also be evaluated for their effect on the employees’ quality of life.
4.3.3 The C urrent S tate of the B ridges I s N egatively I mpacting R esidents
This section deals with many of the points made earlier in the report regarding the costs of delays and
congestion because of the substandard design of the bridges and the increasing need for maintenance
on the bridges. With lanes only 10 feet wide and lacking any “modern safety features such as lane
separation, shoulders, and pedestrian or bicycle separations,“7 the bridges cause not only crashes, but
fear for personal safety among drivers, bikers, and pedestrians alike.
7 Cape Cod Region Chamber of Commerce
46 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
The letter from the Town of Bourne pointed out that during the Sagamore Bridge closure for
rehabilitation of abutments in 2023, approximately 420,000 person-hours of delay meant an estimated
$10 million in lost time. The same rehabilitation of Bourne Bridge is expected to be even worse.
Senator Moran cited the impacts of the closures on congestion, noise pollution, and access to services,
as well as adding financial burdens to residents. The Cape Cod Canal Regional Chamber of Commerce
highlighted the fact that, for area residents, congestion and gridlock are year-around conditions.
Further, under the worst traffic conditions in the summer, drivers are “getting out of their cars and
screaming at each other in the streets.”8 Human costs included delays of emergency services and
school buses.
Other costs noted by respondents included secondary impacts on businesses of delays in employee
arrivals, of late shipment deliveries, and of supply-chain disruptions. The latter affects the availability
and costs of goods and services on the Cape and Islands. Cape Cod depends almost entirely on the
private auto for transport. Services such as healthcare, education, and childcare are often limited on
Cape Cod, making residents dependent on crossing the bridges to access them.
The bridges especially affect the town of Bourne, which Cape Cod Canal divides in two, and residents
living near the bridges are “trapped in their homes” because they cannot get out of their driveways.
Community services are on both sides of Cape Cod Canal, and residents are isolated from them, as they
are from other residents of their own community, even after COVID-19 restrictions have disappeared.
The Cape Cod Commission summarized the situation as one in which public confidence in the bridges,
both from a safety standpoint and from reliability, is low. The impacts are local, but also regional, with
the lack of reliable movement of goods and people to and from the Cape and Islands. They term the
situation “untenable.”
4.3.4 The C urrent S tate of the B ridges I mpacts E mergency S ervices and
A ccess to H ealthcare and I s a P ublic H ealth and P ublic S afety R isk
The bridges are the only route off Cape Cod, and in an emergency, the usual congestion presents
dangerous delays for emergency vehicles needing to get from one side of the town of Bourne to the
other. The town of Sandwich, also divided by Cape Cod Canal, relies on mutual aid from the town of
Bourne to respond to service calls because of bridge congestion. Because of limited medical facilities
on Cape Cod, some emergencies require transport off Cape Cod, for which ambulances and helicopters
are needed, the latter being required when ambulances cannot get off Cape Cod quickly enough. But
even flight services can be affected by bad weather, and patients must go by ambulance regardless of
traffic conditions.
Bridge congestion also affects routine travel for medical care off Cape Cod, particularly for specialties
not dealt with by local medical facilities. The report noted that this is particularly relevant for the aging
8 Town of Bourne
47 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
population on Cape Cod, where towns’ shares of residents over 60 approach or exceed 50%, and the
trend is projected to continue through 2035.
The Barnstable County Sheriff's Office provided a detailed explanation of how bridge congestion
affected their employees, who live on both sides of the bridges. It makes hiring and retention difficult
in the tight labor market. It affects the “wellbeing, safety, and security of their employees and
inmates.” Commuting delays affect shift workers by requiring some to work double shifts to cover for
employees who cannot make it to work on time. For corrections officers and dispatchers, normal time
off is essential for their ability to work safely. Inmates needing to go off Cape Cod for court
appearances are also affected, as are the transport teams, with all being placed under additional
stress.
The Association to Preserve Cape Cod raised the issue of climate change, which would increase storm
intensity and other climate threats. Cape Cod residents would be placed in dire situations if such
threats required evacuation during a time of bridge lane closures.
Bourne Bridge is part of the Federal Highway Administration- and U.S. Department of Defense-
designated Strategic Highway Network (STRAHNET) for military transportation, national security, and
emergency preparedness (Cape Cod Commission).
4.3.5 Failure to R eplace the B ridges W ould B e C atastrophic
Continuing the current state of affairs would result in ever-worsening conditions, culminating in a
permanent reduction to single-lane traffic on the bridges in the 2030s, according to Senator Julian Cyr.
Senator Moran termed this the creation of “unfathomable congestion…impacting the regional
economy of Cape Cod as well as the public safety of its residents.”
Escalating repair needs that force weight limits would cause disruption to, and increased costs of, the
movement of the goods that Cape Cod residents rely on for everyday life. Air pollution would increase,
and tourism would be negatively affected.
Projected lane closures, should the bridges not be replaced soon, would add billions of dollars in travel
delay costs plus secondary economic impacts. The possibility of a total bridge closure, should its
condition eventually become an immediate safety threat, is not unprecedented (Cape Cod
Commission).
The Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce says the business community sees “disastrous” impacts of failure
to replace the bridges, citing the following litany of already-serious business impacts that would be
exacerbated by continuing the “fix-it-as-it-fails” approach:
• Increased commute times for staff
• Higher overtime costs for workers stuck in traffic
• Late deliveries
• Supply-chain disruptions
• Reduced confidence in Cape Cod as a destination and place to do business, which in turn would
impact the many small businesses that serve the destination market.
48 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Timely evacuations in the event of weather or other emergencies would be severely compromised
because residents would have only the two exit routes.
The Town of Sandwich called attention to its unique situation: the northern section of town, where the
business and historic centers are located, is subjected to traffic backups of as much as 10 miles during
routine maintenance of bridges, effectively isolating them from the rest of town. As maintenance
closures increase on the aging bridges, this situation will become increasingly untenable for both
businesses and residents.
Any major rehabilitation of the bridges would affect the timing and cost of municipal wastewater
construction projects, required to clean up coastal waters and ponds. Other natural resources could
suffer from disinvestment as municipal budgets are squeezed by declining revenues from businesses
adversely affected by congestion.
If congestion becomes bad enough, the short-term vacation rental market could contract, reducing
public revenues from the fees charged and used for wastewater infrastructure, a large issue on its own
for Cape Cod.
4.3.6 Replacing the Bridges Would Have Significant Benefits for Residents
and the Economy
Given the foregoing descriptions of the impacts of current and future congestion, it hardly seems
necessary to cite the benefits of replacing the bridges. For some businesses, the benefits would be
simple survival, with more reliable access to workers, supplies, and customers. For some older
residents, dependent on medical services off Cape Cod, they could mean literal survival.
For residents, quality of life would be hugely improved. They would enjoy more reliable travel times
both on and off Cape Cod, and reduced stress of getting to and from work and appointments. School
children would spend less time getting to and from school and more time in school or home. Residents
would have improved access to healthcare off Cape Cod. Air quality would improve with less idling
time on the bridges. Public safety would be enhanced, and emergency services would be more reliable.
As climate change progresses, the likelihood of extreme weather events grows. If such a weather or
other emergency necessitated evacuation of all or parts of Cape Cod, residents would at least not have
the added burden of fear that they would be caught in a life-threatening traffic jam.
For tourism, an industry that is second in the state only to Greater Boston, the improvements in traffic
flows and, most importantly, reliability, would enhance the popularity of Cape Cod as a destination.
Not only would travel in and out be facilitated but travel on Cape Cod would be easier and a benefit to
local businesses that cater to tourists.
For all businesses, improved ease of travel would broaden the labor pool by making it easier to reach,
hire, and retain employees and would make it faster and less frustrating to reach suppliers and
customers.
For pedestrians, bicycles, and disabled persons, improved facilities on the bridge would open up more
possibilities for travel, exercise, and social interaction.
49 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Most critical, according to the Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce, is that the long-term viability of Cape
Cod, closely linked to the condition of Bourne and Sagamore Bridges, would be secured by the
replacement project.
Another relevant document is a technical memorandum that analyzes the economic impacts on Cape
Cod, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard from lane and bridge closures on the two bridges. The Cape
Cod Commission requested the quantitative and qualitative analysis, which ERG, a consulting firm,
carried out. The memorandum covers assumptions, data sources, methodologies, and results.9 It posits
two scenarios:
• A complete shutdown of one bridge for six months and 16 months of lane closures
• Complete shutdown of one bridge for two to five years.
The memorandum also includes results of interviews with local stakeholders, local officials, and
emergency responders. Their responses tracked closely with those of the officials interviewed for the
“Warren Report” regarding the increasingly serious social and economic impacts they foresaw for the
two scenarios. The Cape Cod Commission provides a publicly available overview of the results
described in the technical memorandum.10
5 Program Impacts
5.1 Operational Impacts
5.1.1 Regional Economic Impacts
5.1.1.1 Methods and Results
TREDIS software was used to evaluate and compare predicted economic impacts for the No Build
Alternative and Build Alternative for the year 2050. To isolate the regional economic impacts that
would result in response to the Build Alternative, the induced economic impacts were estimated using
TREDIS. This analysis considered the amount of “ripple effect” economic activity that would be created
because of a bridge replacement. The induced economic impacts of a potential bridge replacement for
the No Build Alternative would be zero, as the No Build Alternative does not propose replacing the
bridges. The induced economic impacts of a potential bridge replacement for the Build Alternative are
provided in Table 5-1.
9 ERG, Technical Memorandum to the Cape Cod Commission. August 9, 2024.
10 Cape Cod Commission. Cape Cod Canal Bridge Closure Economic Impact Analysis. September 2024.
https://tobweb.town.barnstable.ma.us/TownmanagerCommunicatrions/2024-10-08%20TMReport%20-%202024-09-
10%20CIBC%20-%20Cape%20Cod%20Commission%20Bridge%20Closure%20Economic%20Analysis.pdf
50 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Table 5 -1 . Economic Impacts: TREDIS Analysis, 2050
Region
Output
(2022 dollars)
Value Added
(2022 dollars)
Jobs
(headcount)
Labor Income
(2022 dollars)
Cape Cod and Islands $10,380,000 $4,570,000 21 $2,610,000
Plymouth County $3,360,000 $1,650,000 8 $1,030,000
Rest of Massachusetts $7,370,000 $3,960,000 11 $2,440,000
Total Massachusetts $21,100,000 $10,180,000 40 $6,080,000
Source: TREDIS analysis
As presented in Table 5-1,11 the results of this analysis show that for 2050 there would be a net
increase in economic output, value added, jobs, and labor income for the Cape and Islands, Plymouth
County, and the Rest of Massachusetts for the Build Alternative when compared to the No Build
Alternative. The net increase in economic output within the Cape and Islands is 49% of the total
increase for Massachusetts, attributable to the Build Alternative. While the net increase in the total
headcount of jobs for the Cape and Islands in 2050 comprises over half of the total increase in
Massachusetts (attributable to the Build Alternative), the increase in labor income generated from
these jobs is estimated to be only 43% of the total increase in labor income for Massachusetts,
attributable to the Build Alternative.
The TREDIS analysis also compares tax collection for state and local taxes, including those levied on both
households and businesses, for the No Build Alternative and Build Alternative. As presented in Table 5-2,
net tax collections for the Build Alternative would be about $426,000 (in 2022 dollars) greater than that
of the No Build Alternative. Of this, 49% would be garnered from Cape Cod and Islands.
Table 5 -2 . State and Local Tax Impacts, 2050 (2022 dollars)
Region Tax Revenue
Cape Cod and Islands $209,000
Plymouth County $90,000
Rest of Massachusetts $127,000
Total Massachusetts $426,000
Source: TREDIS analysis
TREDIS estimates total social benefits as well as economic impacts. The social benefits include cost
savings that are adapted and used to inform the economic impact analysis but also benefits that do not
result in monetary transfers. These savings—in the form of saved time, crashes, and pollutants
emitted—are monetized following U.S. Department of Transportation guidance. Some social benefits
are enjoyed directly by travelers, but others, such as environmental benefits or business time savings,
are enjoyed by other stakeholders, such as local firms or the community.
11 These and other tables may not total due to rounding, especially in the case of jobs measures.
51 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Among monetary benefits, households—and to some degree businesses—would enjoy savings in
vehicle maintenance costs and fuel. Businesses would also benefit from saved shipping costs. These
items—represented by the Vehicle Operating Costs, Business Time, and Shipper/Logistics Costs
categories in Table 5-3—were used as inputs for the economic analysis model that produced the
results shown in Table 5-1 and Table 5-2.
Table 5 -3 . Social Benefits in 2050 (2022 dollars)
Benefits Category Value
Vehicle Operating Costs Saved $8,600,000
Business Time Saved $11,600,000
Shipper/Logistics Costs Saved $200,000
Value of Personal Time $82,100,000
Safety Cost Saved $10,300
Environmental Costs Saved $4,100,000
Total $116,900,000
Source: TREDIS analysis
At the same time, all system users would enjoy time savings (valued under the categories Value of
Personal Time and Business Time). Averted crashes—which result in saved lives, injuries, and property
damage—were monetized per the U.S. Department of Transportation guidance to find a total Safety
Cost category. Finally, reduced volumes of pollutants in the environment were monetized and reported
in the Environmental category.
5.1.2 TREDIS Software Background
Economic impacts are estimated using the TREDIS transportation economics suite—the most widely
used system for economic impacts of transportation projects in the U.S. and Canada.12 Embedded
within TREDIS is baseline economic data from IMPLAN,13 along with future projections of industry
growth by sector for each county in the U.S., from Moody’s Analytics. TREDIS adds to and optimizes
this economic data for measurement of transportation’s impacts on the economy.
When conducting a TREDIS analysis, users enter information on transportation performance changes
and project cost and timing. TREDIS uses federal data sources (annually updated) to attribute costs to
performance changes in several categories, including vehicle operating costs, the value of time for both
personal and commute travel, shipping logistics costs, environmental impacts, and the impact on
safety.
12 For more information, visit TREDIS Transportation Analysis Tools (www.tredis.com).
13 IMPLAN is the most widely used input-output economic modeling system in the U.S. This system uses industry- and
region-specific economic data to translate direct effects into indirect and induced impacts. More information is available
at www.implan.com.
52 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
When direct impacts from spending or performance-driven cost savings occur in the economy, there is
always additional economic activity because businesses make purchases from their suppliers and
employees re-spend income in the economy. These benefits are referred to as multiplier effects.
When businesses reduce their transportation costs, they utilize those savings to 1) reinvest in more
productive capital, 2) increase research and development expenditures, 3) reduce the prices paid by
their customers, or 4) retain profits for disbursement to shareholders. These uses increase the
productivity and competitiveness of the business, leading to economic growth. When households
reduce their transportation costs, they have additional income to spend on other goods, leading to the
growth of local businesses where they spend money. Reducing the stress and length of commuters’
travel also has some effect on business productivity and their ability to attract and retain talent. These
household and business impacts can also change regional supply chains.
There are three main monetary measures of economic impact. The three measures are nested within
each other and cannot be added.
• Output is the broadest measure of impact. Depending on what is appropriate for the sector, output
represents total revenue, total sales, or the total final value of all goods and services produced.
• Value added is output minus the cost of intermediate inputs, such as the value of inputs other than
labor and capital. Value added consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and
imports less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.14 Value added is the contribution of businesses
to gross domestic product.
• Labor income consists of wage and salary disbursements and of supplements to wages and salaries,
including benefits, as well as proprietor income.15 The Jobs measure is the employment headcount,
including both full- and part-time jobs by place of employment.
The results for each of these measures includes the impacts of the multiplier effects.
5.1.3 Development of TREDIS Inputs
The MassDOT design team developed the transportation system performance inputs for the TREDIS
analysis of the Program, and FXM Associates led the economic analysis in conjunction with EBP.
Economic characteristics were considered for three regions defined in the TREDIS model:
• The Cape and Islands (Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties)
• Plymouth County
• Other counties in Massachusetts
14 Value added definitions are defined in the national income and product accounts from the Bureau of Economic Analysis
and implemented by IMPLAN, Inc. Gross operating surplus includes proprietors’ income, corporate profits, net interest,
business transfer payments, rental income, etc.
15 Proprietor income includes payments received by self-employed individuals and unincorporated business owners and
includes the capital consumption allowance.
53 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
The MassDOT design team produced estimates of vehicle trips, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and
vehicle hours traveled (VHT) for three-hour-long periods for 2050:
• Fall weekday AM
• Fall weekday PM
• Summer weekend midday
The vehicle trips, VMT, and VHT provided were provided for both the No Build Alternative and Build
Alternative with the purpose of understanding how capacity improvements for the replacement
bridges and improved approaches would reduce the delay produced by the capacity and efficiency
constraints for the existing bridges.
These travel measures were further expanded using factors to represent full days of travel, using
factors that differentiated VMT and VHT reflecting the non-linear growth of VHT in response to
increased volumes of traffic in the network. These figures were further expanded to represent the full
year—all periods of each day in every season—by applying scaling factors based on the observed
volumes of traffic across the bridges from September 2023 through August 2024.
5.1.4 Key Valuation Parameters
These factors represent best estimates or assumptions about the value associated with different
aspects of transportation. Data sources are documented in footnotes.
5.1.5 Mode Share
MassDOT provided data on mode share per hour across each bridge (in each direction) among four
categories:
• Autos
• Motorcycles
• Medium-duty trucks
• Heavy-duty trucks
These categories were collapsed to relative percentages for each category (counting autos and
motorcycles as passenger vehicles) for each period used in the study:
• 6 AM – 9 AM (“AM”/3 hours)
• 9 AM – 3 PM (“Midday”/6 hours)
• 3 PM – 6 PM (“PM”/3 hours)
• 6 PM – 6 AM (“Nighttime”/12 hours)
5.1.6 Visitors V ersus Locals
Using data collected by AirSage from cellphone service providers in 2014 and used for the Cape Cod
Canal Area Transportation Study, four geographies were modeled:
• Cape Cod and Islands
54 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
• Plymouth County
• Rest of Massachusetts
• External
It was assumed that all trips into or out of Cape Cod were matched by a return trip. The TransCAD
simulation that informed the Major Rehabilitation Evaluation Report and covered all of Barnstable and
Dukes Counties as well as portions of Plymouth and Bristol Counties was used to determine the
percentage of these trips made by visitors, defined as tourists and second-home residents. These trip
counts and visitor versus local percentages were applied to the relevant time periods identified in the
other parameters.
5.1.7 Vehicle Occupancy
Passenger occupancy allows vehicle characteristics to be accurately converted to person-hour benefits.
MassDOT provided counts of occupancy for select time periods across the existing bridges. Assuming
that truck crews were a single driver and using the share of trucks discussed in Section 5.1.5, Mode
Share, EBP calculated that the average occupancy for passenger vehicles was 1.47 travelers, including
the driver. By comparison, U.S. Department of Transportation Benefit Cost Analysis Guidance from
December 2023 cites NHTS 2017 for Passenger Vehicles at Weekday Peak to give the number
1.48 people per vehicle for passenger vehicles.16 To calculate the cost of freight, service default factors
stored in TREDIS were also applied. MassDOT assumed 1 crew member per tractor trailer and an
average load in 17.50 U.S. tons.17 Medium-duty trucks are expected to have only 1 driver and 4.15 tons
of freight. Vehicle movements themselves have limited economic value without considering what is
moving. Based on the volume of goods moved, TREDIS also applies information on the industry-use of
freight and the commodity mix present on freight vehicles in the region to estimate industry-specific
benefits.
5.1.8 Vehicle Operating Costs
Vehicle operating costs are a key factor for calculating benefits and economic impacts from both
households and businesses. When households reduce their spending on transportation, they are able
to purchase other goods and services, and when businesses reduce transportation expenditures, they
identify ways to more efficiently utilize those resources. Vehicle operating costs are split between fuel
16 U.S. Department of Transportation. (2023). Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance for Discretionary Grant Programs. December.
U.S. Department of Transportation. Citing NHTS 2017 for passenger vehicles at weekday peak, reporting 1.48 people per
vehicle. https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/2024-
11/Benefit%20Cost%20Analysis%20Guidance%202025%20Update%20%28Final%29.pdf
17 TREDIS software group analysis based on Hernandez, S. (2017). Estimation of average payloads from weigh-in-motion
data. Transportation Research Record, 2644(1), 39-47.
55 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
purchases and other costs in TREDIS. Table 5-4 identifies the other costs.18 As an example, for cars this
includes maintenance and tire purchases, and mileage-based depreciation and insurance payments.
Table 5 -4 . Vehicle Operations and Maintenance Costs (2022$)
Mode Value per
Uncongested Mile
Passenger Auto $0.176
Medium/Heavy Trucks $0.675
Source: TREDIS software group
The second component of vehicle operating costs in the TREDIS system is fuel consumption. Based on
national fleet averages fuel use is calculated based on distance or time traveled. Table 5-5 lists the fuel
consumption rates in gallons per mile.19 Again, walking and biking have no fuel consumption costs, and
transit analysis has been deferred to a later analysis that can provide more detail on the topic.
Table 5 -5 . Vehicle Fuel Consumption
Mode Gallons per Mile
Passenger Auto 0.0437
Light-/Medium-Duty Truck 0.1337
Heavy Truck 0.1678
Source: TREDIS software group
Fuel consumption imposes costs on households and businesses, dependent on the price of fuel, which
is indicated in Table 5-6. It is worth noting that an analysis such as this one is sensitive to the assumed
fuel costs.
Table 5 -6 . Fuel Prices
Mode Cost per Gallon (2022$)*
Gasoline $3.42
Diesel $4.54
* Values derived by the TREDIS software group, based
on January 16, 2024, prices as reported by AAA.
18 Values derived by the TREDIS software group, using multiple sources: Vehicle operating cost per mile is defined for cars
as an average of small, medium, and large cars, SUVs, and vans and adjusted by average speeds; source AAA (2023).
Vehicle operating costs per mile for trucks were drawn from American Trucking Research Institute (ATRI) 2023 data on
costs per mile for truck/trailer lease or purchase payments, repair and maintenance, truck insurance premiums, permits
and licenses, and tires and adjusted by average speeds.
19 Values derived by the TREDIS software group, using Highway Statistics 2021 Table VM-1.
56 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
5.1.9 Value of Time
The per-person-hour values of time used for the analysis are derived based on the U.S. Department of
Transportation value of time guidance. Values are adjusted from national averages based on
information from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Business time includes wages and benefits and is
estimated based on industry sector. Commuter time is only wages, with half being household time and
half being industry cost in terms of wage premiums for burdensome commutes. Personal time is
valued at half of the average wage rate. Table 5-7 lists passenger and truck operator value of time.
Table 5 -7 . Value of Travel-Time Savings and Travel-Time Reliability Savings by Mode and
Purpose
Mode – Purpose Value
Passenger – Commute $29.29
Passenger – Personal $14.64
Medium-Duty Truck – Freight $28.23
Heavy-Duty Truck – Freight $34.87
Source: TREDIS software group
5.1.10 Value of Freight Logistics Delay
The value of freight logistics time in TREDIS varies by commodity type for the modeled regions. The
values used here range from about 7.7 cents to 74.6 cents per ton-hour of delay, depending on the
regions involved. These are not an important source of savings in this study, however, totaling only
approximately $226,000 in savings for the year in 2050 (in 2022 dollars).
57 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
5.1.11 Detailed Results
By 2050, the Build Alternative is projected to generate over $21 billion in business output and support
for 40 jobs across Massachusetts. The greatest impacts are seen in Professional and Business Services,
Financial Activities, Manufacturing, and Education and Health Services. Most major industry sectors
experience positive gains, with the exception of Other Services, which shows a net decline (Table 5-8).
Table 5 -8 . Impacts by Major Industry Sector in 2050 (Total Massachusetts)
NAICS Industry
Business
Output
(2022 $M)
Value
Added
(2022 $M) Jobs
Labor
Income
(2022 $M)
111-115, 211-213 Agriculture &
Extraction 0.394 0.187 1 0.119
221 Utilities 0.467 0.248 0 0.095
230 Construction 0.829 0.437 3 0.409
311-339 Manufacturing 5.870 1.909 6 1.189
420 Wholesale Trade 1.132 0.582 2 0.333
441-454 Retail Trade 0.323 0.137 5 0.003
481-488 Transportation 0.559 0.291 1 0.197
491-493 Postal & Warehousing 0.244 0.196 4 0.157
511-519 Media and Information 1.155 0.455 0 0.239
521-525, 531-533 Financial Activities 3.728 2.261 7 0.724
541, 551, 561-562 Professional &
Business Services 4.308 2.545 17 2.062
611, 621-624 Education & Health
Services 2.378 1.567 13 1.418
711-713, 721-722, 811-814 Other Services -0.375 -0.486 -23 -0.958
920 Government 0.092 -0.154 0 0.092
Total 21.104 10.175 40 6.079
Source: TREDIS analysis
58 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
By 2050, the Build Alternative is projected to generate $7.4 billion in business output and support
11 jobs in the rest of Massachusetts. The most significant impacts occur in Professional and Business
Services, Financial Activities, Manufacturing, and Education and Health Services. While most sectors
see positive impacts, Other Services experiences a net decline across all measures (Table 5-9).
Table 5 -9 . Impacts by Major Industry Sector in 2050 (Rest of Massachusetts)
NAICS Industry
Business
Output
(2022 $M)
Value
Added
(2022 $M) Jobs
Labor
Income
(2022 $M)
111-115, 211-213 Agriculture &
Extraction 0.054 0.027 0 0.018
221 Utilities 0.153 0.085 0 0.029
230 Construction 0.169 0.093 1 0.086
311-339 Manufacturing 1.972 0.711 2 0.442
420 Wholesale Trade 0.447 0.257 1 0.146
441-454 Retail Trade 0.032 0.002 1 -0.020
481-488 Transportation 0.179 0.092 0 0.070
491-493 Postal & Warehousing 0.071 0.054 1 0.044
511-519 Media and Information 0.541 0.246 0 0.125
521-525, 531-533 Financial Activities 1.383 0.903 2 0.335
541, 551, 561-562 Professional &
Business Services 1.732 1.181 5 0.951
611, 621-624 Education & Health
Services 0.806 0.542 4 0.489
711-713, 721-722,
811-814 Other Services -0.209 -0.197 -8 -0.318
920 Government 0.038 -0.040 0 0.041
Total 7.37 3.96 11 2.44
Source: TREDIS analysis
59 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
By 2050, the Build Alternative is expected to generate $21.1 billion in business output, $10.2 billion in
value added, and support 40 jobs across Massachusetts. The largest gains are projected in Professional
and Business Services, Financial Activities, Manufacturing, and Education and Health Services. Other
Services is the only sector to experience a decline, with negative impacts across all categories
(Table 5-10).
Table 5 -10. Impacts by Major Industry Sector in 2050 (Total Massachusetts)
NAICS Industry
Business
Output
(2022 $M)
Value
Added
(2022 $M) Jobs
Labor
Income
(2022 $M)
111-115, 211-213 Agriculture &
Extraction 0.394 0.187 1 0.119
221 Utilities 0.467 0.248 0 0.095
230 Construction 0.829 0.437 3 0.409
311-339 Manufacturing 5.870 1.909 6 1.189
420 Wholesale Trade 1.132 0.582 2 0.333
441-454 Retail Trade 0.323 0.137 5 0.003
481-488 Transportation 0.559 0.291 1 0.197
491-493 Postal & Warehousing 0.244 0.196 4 0.157
511-519 Media and Information 1.155 0.455 0 0.239
521-525, 531-533 Financial Activities 3.728 2.261 7 0.724
541, 551, 561-562 Professional &
Business Services 4.308 2.545 17 2.062
611, 621-624 Education & Health
Services 2.378 1.567 13 1.418
711-713, 721-722,
811-814 Other Services -0.375 -0.486 -23 -0.958
920 Government 0.092 -0.154 0 0.092
Total 21.104 10.175 40 6.079
Source: TREDIS analysis
60 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
5.1.12 Local Area Economic Impacts
The travel-time savings afforded by the Build Alternative would have impacts on the reach of retailers,
employers, and employees. These impacts vary somewhat by bridge, but the Build Alternative would
increase the employment pool by about one-third from each bridge. Table 5-11 summarizes the impact
of a 3-minute reduction in travel time from Sagamore Bridge. Extending the number of employers
commuters could reach from the bridges would more than double the number of potential job
opportunities in the Manufacturing sector, for example, and similarly increase the size of the labor
pool for employers in the Manufacturing sector.
Table 5 -11. Increase in Access to Jobs with 3-minute Travel-Time Savings (Sagamore Bridge)
Sector
No Build
Alternative -
Jobs within
30-Minute
Drive
Build
Alternative -
Jobs within
33-Minute
Drive
Number
Increase
Percentage
Increase
11: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 721 790 69 10%
21: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 53 70 17 32%
22: Utilities 838 945 107 13%
23: Construction 7,233 9,377 2,144 30%
31-33: Manufacturing 5,968 12,006 6,038 101%
42: Wholesale Trade 4,576 5,963 1,387 30%
44-45: Retail Trade 20,903 24,861 3,958 19%
48-49: Transportation and Warehousing 3,740 4,343 603 16%
51: Information 3,082 3,608 526 17%
52: Finance and Insurance 4,448 5,303 855 19%
53: Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 4,351 5,111 760 17%
54: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 7,945 13,421 5,476 69%
55: Management of Companies and Enterprises 156 180 24 15%
56: Administrative and Support and Waste
Management and Remediation Services 4,169 5,449 1,280 31%
61: Educational Services 9,987 11,475 1,488 15%
62: Health Care and Social Assistance 26,137 36,368 10,231 39%
71: Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 3,931 5,016 1,085 28%
61 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Sector
No Build
Alternative -
Jobs within
30-Minute
Drive
Build
Alternative -
Jobs within
33-Minute
Drive
Number
Increase
Percentage
Increase
72: Accommodation and Food Services 15,232 19,291 4,059 27%
81: Other Services (except Public Administration) 12,055 14,033 1,978 16%
92: Public Administration 8,968 12,144 3,176 35%
99: Unassigned 908 1,007 99 11%
Total 145,401 190,761 45,360 31%
Source: Environics Analytics Claritas Reports, 2024; and FXM Associates
Table 5-12 contains the same information for Bourne Bridge. Here the increases are more evenly
distributed, with “office-using” sectors (NAICS 51 through 55) and the health care sector receiving the
largest access benefits of the savings in travel times.
Table 5 -12. Increase in Access to Jobs with 3-minute Travel-Time Savings (Bourne Bridge)
Sector
No Build
Alternative -
Jobs within
30-minute
Drive time
Build
Alternative -
Jobs within
33-minute
Drive time
Number
Increase
Percentage
Increase
11: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 1,083 1,257 174 16%
21: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 87 102 15 17%
22: Utilities 909 990 81 9%
23: Construction 8,689 11,752 3,063 35%
31-33: Manufacturing 17,253 17,461 208 1%
42: Wholesale Trade 10,273 11,663 1,390 14%
44-45: Retail Trade 26,049 34,219 8,170 31%
48-49: Transportation and Warehousing 5,802 6,569 767 13%
51: Information 2,825 4,343 1,518 54%
52: Finance and Insurance 5,260 6,465 1,205 23%
53: Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 4,527 6,587 2,060 46%
54: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 11,643 18,347 6,704 58%
62 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Sector
No Build
Alternative -
Jobs within
30-minute
Drive time
Build
Alternative -
Jobs within
33-minute
Drive time
Number
Increase
Percentage
Increase
55: Management of Companies and Enterprises 209 215 6 3%
56: Administrative and Support and Waste
Management and Remediation Services 5,410 7,251 1,841 34%
61: Educational Services 10,525 13,288 2,763 26%
62: Health Care and Social Assistance 31,802 49,365 17,563 55%
71: Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 5,120 6,824 1,704 33%
72: Accommodation and Food Services 18,200 23,960 5,760 32%
81: Other Services (except Public Administration) 14,536 18,385 3,849 26%
92: Public Administration 11,020 16,009 4,989 45%
99: Unassigned 920 1,047 127 14%
Total 192,142 256,099 63,957 33%
Source: Environics Analytics Claritas Reports, 2024; and FXM Associates
Further benefits accruing from the Build Alternative would extend market areas for retailers. Retailers
typically define market areas in terms of drive times, with a 20-minute drive time considered the
maximum time consumers would be willing to drive for all but the largest stores and store types. A
travel-time savings of 3 minutes would enable retailers to expand their market areas, and their
customers to expand their consumption opportunities. Table 5-13 quantifies how that benefit would
play out from Sagamore Bridge.
Table 5 -13. Increase in Access to Jobs with 3-minute Travel-Time Savings (Sagamore Bridge)
Sector
No Build Alternative -
Retail Expenditures
within 20-minute
Drive time (2024$)
Build Alternative -
Retail
Expenditures
within 23-minute
Drive time (2024$)
Difference
(2024$)
Motor Vehicles & Parts (441) 413,935,246 572,169,070 158,233,824
Furniture & Home Furnishings (442) 42,715,096 58,923,574 16,208,478
Electronics & Appliances (443) 29,619,809 41,080,340 11,460,531
63 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Sector
No Build Alternative -
Retail Expenditures
within 20-minute
Drive time (2024$)
Build Alternative -
Retail
Expenditures
within 23-minute
Drive time (2024$)
Difference
(2024$)
Building Materials & Garden Equipment &
Supplies (444) 141,611,004 195,700,823 54,089,819
Food & Beverages (445) 286,221,995 397,515,519 111,293,524
Health & Personal Care (446) 118,474,954 164,331,820 45,856,866
Gasoline Stations (447) 114,172,137 158,680,915 44,508,778
Clothing & Clothing Accessories (448) 102,138,870 141,542,439 39,403,569
Sporting Goods, Hobby, & Musical Instruments
(451) 28,614,342 39,659,874 11,045,532
General Merchandise (452) 251,342,608 348,660,477 97,317,869
Miscellaneous Store Retailers (453) 44,048,366 61,024,789 16,976,423
Food Services & Drinking Places (722) 271,380,536 376,154,392 104,773,856
Total
Retail Trade (incl. Food & Drink) 1,844,274,963 2,555,444,032 711,169,069
Source: Environics Analytics Claritas Reports, 2024; and FXM Associates
In this case, total consumer spending would increase by over $500 million with the savings of
3 minutes of travel time from Sagamore Bridge.
Table 5-14 presents these data for Bourne Bridge. Here, the increase in consumer expenditures would
approach $1 trillion.
64 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Table 5 -14. Increase in Access to Consumer Expenditures with 3-minute Travel-Time Savings
(Bourne Bridge)
Sector
No Build Alternative -
Retail Expenditures
within 20-minute
Drive time (2024$)
Build Alternative -
Retail Expenditures
within 23-minute
Drive time (2024$)
Difference
(2024$)
Motor Vehicles & Parts (441) 417,655,340 607,642,790 189,987,450
Furniture & Home Furnishings (442) 43,465,506 63,338,346 19,872,840
Electronics & Appliances (443) 30,003,152 43,627,007 13,623,855
Building Materials & Garden Equipment &
Supplies (444) 142,882,637 208,087,766 65,205,129
Food & Beverages (445) 288,296,289 419,717,746 131,421,457
Health & Personal Care (446) 119,654,266 174,158,766 54,504,500
Gasoline Stations (447) 114,680,368 166,832,056 52,151,688
Clothing & Clothing Accessories (448) 103,309,228 150,376,272 47,067,044
Sporting Goods, Hobby, & Musical Instruments
(451) 28,932,221 42,113,140 13,180,919
General Merchandise (452) 253,749,126 369,398,679 115,649,553
Miscellaneous Store Retailers (453) 44,756,753 65,085,808 20,329,055
Food Services & Drinking Places (722) 274,610,175 399,449,425 124,839,250
Total
Retail Trade (incl. Food & Drink) 1,861,995,061 2,709,827,801 847,832,740
Source: EnvironicsAnalytics Claritas Reports, 2024; and FXM Associates
5.1.13 Right-of-Way Analysis
5.1.13.1 Introduction
This analysis evaluates the potential loss in property tax revenue to the Town of Bourne resulting from
proposed property acquisitions for the Build Alternative. The analysis compares assessed property
values before and after the acquisitions, utilizing tax parcel data from the Town of Bourne and a list of
potential properties to be acquired from MassDOT.
65 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
5.1.13.2 Methodology
The Build Alternative has the potential to affect 62 properties, including 28 slated for full acquisition
and 34 for partial acquisition. Partial acquisitions range from as little as 0.3% of the parcel to as much
as 47.7% of the parcel.
The total FY24 assessed value of the 62 properties is $162.66 million, encompassing a combined land
area of 37,554,541 square feet. Of this,2,048,294 square feet—equivalent to 5.5% of the total land
area of the 62 properties—would be directly affected by the acquisitions.
Properties that would be fully acquired would result in a 100% loss of property tax revenue for the
Town of Bourne. For partial acquisitions, MassDOT assumed that only land would be acquired and that
buildings would remain (although some of these parcels have no buildings). Accordingly, MassDOT
multiplied the percentage of the parcel to be acquired by the FY24 assessed land value to account for
lost property tax revenue for partially acquired properties.
5.1.13.3 Results
The total FY24 assessed value of the 62 affected properties is $162,658,800 prior to acquisition. After
the proposed acquisitions, this value is projected to drop to $140,169,392, reflecting a total decrease
of $22,489,408 in assessed value (Table 5-15).
The total reduction in assessed property value is expected to result in an annual tax revenue loss of
$180,365. This estimate is calculated using Town of Bourne’s FY24 property tax rate of $8.02 per
$1,000 of assessed value (Table 5-16).
Table 5 -15. Assessed Values Before and After Potential Acquisition
Type of Property FY 24 Assessed Value
Assessed Value After
Acquisition Assessed Difference
Building $52,159,600 $46,699,000 -$5,460,600
Land $94,889,900 $78,057,892 -$16,832,008
Detached $3,583,600 $3,456,100 -$127,500
Other $12,025,700 $11,956,400 -$69,300
Total Value $162,658,800 $140,169,392 -$22,489,408
Source: Town of Bourne Assessor Database and FXM Associates
Table 5 -16. Potential Property Tax Loss Due to Property Acquisition
FY 24 Property Tax Property Tax After Acquisition Assessed Difference
$1,304,524 $1,124,159 -$180,365
Source: Town of Bourne Assessor Database and FXM Associates
66 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
5.2 Construction Impacts
MassDOT estimated the total direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts of construction
expenditures for the two bridges.20 These data were used in applying the R/ECON Input-Output (I-O)
Model 21 to estimate total direct, indirect, and induced impacts of these expenditures on business
output, household earnings, employment, gross domestic product, and state, local, and federal taxes.
The replacement of the Cape Cod Bridges is projected to generate $5.76 billion in total economic
output in Massachusetts, supporting approximately 27,870 jobs and contributing $2.92 billion to the
state's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The largest impacts are expected in the construction,
manufacturing, and professional and business services sectors (Table 5-17).
Table 5 -17. Economic and Fiscal Impacts in Massachusetts of Cape Cod Bridges Replacement
(both bridges) Conceptual Program Expenditure Estimates: Total Impacts (Direct +
Indirect/Induced)
Category
Output
($1,000)
Employment
Jobs
Earnings
($1,000)
Gross
Domestic
Product
($1,000)
1. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and
Hunting 2,125.3 36 842.3 516.8
2. Mining 22,987.6 65 5,193.9 12,277.1
3. Utilities 57,815.0 55 14,114.2 32,803.2
4. Construction 1,910,688.0 10,521 983,282.6 951,932.6
5. Manufacturing 1,357,265.7 4,601 333,259.5 515,346.5
6. Wholesale Trade 237,177.9 669 66,152.4 124,476.8
7. Retail Trade 141,500.4 1,230 52,002.6 69,279.8
8. Transportation and Warehousing 124,945.8 844 46,442.3 56,872.0
20 Cape Cod Bridges Program (Both Bridges) Conceptual Program Estimates-May 2024
21 Input-Output (I-O) models are used by professional and academic economic analysts to trace out the full range of effects
(including indirect and induced) of business sales, employment, or income directly attributable to existing economic
activities or planned new ones on single or multiple regions or states. The technique derives from the national income
and product accounts, which trace money flows within and between industries and sectors within the national
economy, with adjustments made for the specific makeup of industries and wages and taxes within individual regions
and states. R/ECON I-O (formerly PCIO) was originally developed by the Regional Science Research Institute and has
been in continued use for over 50 years. It is presently updated regularly by the Center for Urban Policy Research at
Rutgers University and tailored to the Massachusetts economy for the purposes of this study. R/ECON I-O is one of three
widely used regional I-O modeling systems in the U.S.; RIMS II (US Bureau of Economic Analysis) and IMPLAN are the
other two.
67 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Category
Output
($1,000)
Employment
Jobs
Earnings
($1,000)
Gross
Domestic
Product
($1,000)
9. Information 113,193.6 185 22,588.1 50,346.3
10. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental,
and Leasing 578,121.9 1,115 89,109.7 342,697.7
11. Professional and Business Services 789,116.3 4,431 430,996.9 507,211.2
12. Educational Services, Health Care, and
Social Assistance 231,971.3 1,916 126,348.8 141,555.3
13. Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, and
Hospitality 91,311.0 1,125 40,591.9 56,169.7
14. Other Services (including Government) 98,592.2 1,078 62,456.4 56,251.8
Total Impacts 5,756,812.1 27,870 2,273,381.7 2,917,736.7
Source: R/ECON I-O Model and FXM Associates
Table 5-18 indicates the distribution of the Cape Cod Bridges replacement’s economic impacts by type:
direct, indirect, and induced. Direct impacts reflect immediate impacts from construction and related
activities. Indirect impacts capture the supply chain response, while induced impacts reflect increased
household spending from wages earned. Direct impacts account for $3.24 billion in output and
16,000 jobs, while indirect impacts add $1.27 billion in output and 5,154 jobs. Induced impacts
contribute an additional $1.25 billion in output and 6,717 jobs. Multipliers indicate that for every $1 in
direct output, the total output impact is $1.78; for every direct job, 1.74 total jobs are supported; and
for every $1 in direct earnings, the total earnings impact is $1.60.
Table 5 -18. Economic and Fiscal Impacts in Massachusetts of Cape Cod Bridges Replacement
(both bridges) Conceptual Program Expenditure Estimates: Distribution of Impacts
and Multipliers
Category
Output
($1,000) Employment Jobs
Earnings
($1,000)
Gross Domestic
Product
($1,000)
1. Direct Impacts 3,242,081.6 16,000 1,418,259.2 1,521,945.8
2. Indirect Impacts 1,268,506.0 5,154 437,377.8 662,378.5
3. Induced Impacts 1,246,224.4 6,717 417,744.6 733,412.4
Total Impacts 5,756,812.1 27,870 2,273,381.7 2,917,736.7
Multipliers (= 4 / 1) 1.776 1.742 1.603 1.917
Source: R/ECON I-O Model and FXM Associates
68 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
The Cape Cod Bridges replacement is expected to contribute $2.92 billion to Massachusetts' GDP. Of
this, $1.83 billion (63%) comes from worker compensation, $110 million (4%) from taxes—split
between local ($14.7 million), state ($27.4 million), and federal ($68 million)—and $976.7 million (33%)
from profits, dividends, rents, and other income (Table 5-19).
Table 5 -19. Economic and Fiscal Impacts in Massachusetts of Cape Cod Bridges Replacement
(both bridges) Conceptual Program Expenditure Estimates: Composition of Gross
Domestic Product
Category
Total Gross Domestic Product
($1,000)
1. Compensation 1,830,923.1
2. Taxes 110,097.5
a. Local 14,698.2
b. State 27,440.8
c. Federal 67,958.5
3. Profits, Dividends, Rents, and Other 976,716.1
Total (= 1 + 2 + 3) 2,917,736.7
Source: R/ECON I-O Model and FXM Associates
The Cape Cod Bridges replacement is expected to generate $1.83 billion in labor income from
businesses and $1.97 billion from households. The Program is also expected to generate $604.1 million
in total tax revenue. Of this, $110.1 million comes from businesses and $494 million from households.
Local taxes will total $70.0 million (12%), state taxes $128.6 million (21%), and federal taxes
$405.5 million (67%) (Table 5-20).
Table 5 -20. Economic and Fiscal Impacts in Massachusetts of Cape Cod Bridges Replacement
(both bridges) Conceptual Program Expenditure Estimates: Tax Accounts
Category Business Household Total
1. Labor Income 1,830,923.1 1,974,308.0 —
2. Taxes 110,097.5 493,999.7 604,097.2
a. Local 14,698.2 55,339.0 70,037.3
b. State 27,440.8 101,153.9 128,594.7
c. Federal 67,958.5 337,506.8 405,465.2
Source: R/ECON I-O Model and FXM Associates
69 Cape Cod Bridges Program DEIR – Appendix 4.5, Socioeconomics Technical Report
Table 5-21 indicates the estimated economic and fiscal impacts in Massachusetts per $1 million spent
on the Cape Cod Bridges replacement. For every $1 million in initial expenditure, the Program is
expected to support 6.1 jobs, generate $493,719 in earnings, and contribute $633,656 to
Massachusetts’ GDP. The replacement will also produce $27,927 in state taxes and $15,210 in local
taxes per $1 million expended. Total initial expenditures are projected at $4.6 billion.
Table 5 -21. Economic and Fiscal Impacts in Massachusetts of Cape Cod Bridges Replacement
(both bridges) Conceptual Program Expenditure Estimates: Impacts per Million
Dollars of Initial Expenditure (in dollars)
Category Total
Employment/Jobs 6.1
Earnings $493,718.6
State Taxes $27,927.4
Local Taxes $15,210.2
Gross Domestic Product $633,655.5
Initial Expenditure (in Dollars) $4,604,610,474.0
Source: R/ECON I-O Model and FXM Associates